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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (206090)	11/9/2025 5:38:07 PM
From: E_K_S	1 Recommendation Recommended By DinoNavarre Respond to of 206201

The Bet is that Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) hedges will create better returns. Their 6.5% div is safe ------------------------------------------------------- Northern Oil and Gas: A Defensive Play with Offensive Characteristics NOG benefits from this challenging environment through three key mechanisms: 1. Aggressive Hedging Protection For 2025, NOG has crude oil swaps averaging $74.41/barrel with collars providing a floor of $69.41/barrel and a ceiling of $77.45/barrel Ainvest. The company has over 50,000 barrels per day of oil hedged for the second half of 2025 and over 30,000 barrels per day hedged for 2026 The AI Journal. This is critical: with the World Bank forecasting $60/barrel oil in 2026, NOG's hedges provide approximately $9-14/barrel price protection above expected market prices. These hedges effectively lock in cash flows, shielding the company from downside risks while allowing participation in upside price movements Ainvest. While other producers face revenue collapse at $60 oil, NOG will continue generating strong cash flows at locked-in $70+ prices. 2. Capital-Light Non-Operated Model NOG operates a diversified non-operated business model, participating in wells operated by approximately 95 different companies across multiple basins without bearing direct operational costs Investing.com. This asset-light approach offers flexibility, lower overhead, and diversified production exposure without direct operational risks BeyondSPX. Crucially, the company reduced its 2025 capital expenditure budget to $925-$1,050 million from $1,050-$1,200 million, representing a roughly 12% reduction Investing.com. In a downturn, NOG can rapidly adjust capital allocation without the fixed cost burden of operating infrastructure—they simply participate in fewer wells. This flexibility is invaluable when commodity prices deteriorate. 3. Counter-Cyclical Acquisition Opportunity NOG's M&A pipeline is at an "all-time peak," with opportunities spanning from small, accretive bolt-ons to large-scale transformations, while U.S. upstream dealmaking fell by 60% to $30.5 billion in the first half of 2025 Ainvest. Distressed operators in a low-price environment will be forced sellers, and NOG's tax advantages—no federal cash tax liability through 2028—provide additional flexibility to fund acquisitions Ainvest. In essence, while competitors struggle with low prices, NOG can use its hedged cash flows to acquire quality assets at distressed valuations, positioning for the eventual recovery. Investment Thesis Summary: NOG is essentially shorting oil volatility through hedges while remaining long on production and reserves. In a $60/barrel environment that crushes unhedged producers, NOG will: Generate cash flow as if oil were $70-75/barrel through 2026 Maintain production with minimal capital commitments due to their non-operated model Acquire distressed assets from struggling operators Continue returning capital to shareholders (current 6%+ dividend yield) The asymmetry is compelling: If oil prices stay low, NOG's hedges protect downside. If prices unexpectedly rise above $77/barrel, they participate in the upside while maintaining their low-cost structure. In a recession scenario, their hedges become even more valuable relative to peers. Key risks: Hedge counterparty risk, operator decisions in their non-operated wells, and the eventual roll-off of favorable hedges in 2027+. However, for the 2025-2026 period specifically, NOG is uniquely positioned to outperform during the anticipated oil glut.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (206090)	11/9/2025 6:13:41 PM
From: robert b furman	3 Recommendations Recommended By DinoNavarre E_K_S roguedolphin Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206201

Hi Johnnie, LIKE E_K_S says. LOL IEA is a green biased "New Green Deal" political organization. Their track reord is horrific, scarred with 100,000 barrels a day sneaky adjustments labeled as "missing barrels". G&R have been exposing them for years to be a political organization. They completely missed the unbridled demand from the emerging markets. The emerging markets don't wany renewabled because renewables are more expensive. They don't play the rebate games. They just want the lowest cost energy. Biden was a bought and paid for senile fool. Trump wants to remain competitive in the world ,and will not go down the road that Europe has disastrously gone down. I have followed G&R for several years. They have been on the money: G&R's most viewed blog posts of 2023 to date - rbfurman50@gmail.com - Gmail They see the US shale deposits have peaked and new oil from non OPEC+ is rolling over . I buy their view. I'm new to nonoperating oil companies but have modest positions and as I'v eowned them for almost a year now, I like them better. THEY HAVE AN EXCELLENT BUSINESS MODEL ,AS THIER MAIN ASSETS ARE ROYALTIES. If it doesn't pay well now, buy them on sale, keep the oili n the ground and sell tcrude when it does become profitable. It is a very long term opportunistic view. NOG is the oldest and largest, VTS is an upcomer and very aggressive with strong insider holding exceeding 25% of all shares. That gives me great comfort. Bob