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Strategies & Market Trends : Bear! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harshu Vyas who wrote (274)	11/10/2025 3:28:35 PM
From: Sean Collett	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 291

Not that he needs me to defend but I am unsure why you are disappointed in the guy who called the 1999 dot-com and subsequent value revival, housing bubble, 2020 market bottom, GameStop, inflation, bond bear market, 2022 crash, regional banking situation & quick resolution, and then gold rally. Your interpretation of Cassandra is incorrect. The mythology was Cassandra was a princess so she too had broad reach, but the curse was no one would believe her predictions. As for analyzing cash flows and depreciation I find most don't actually understand. So I think you overestimate markets ability to read deeper. Now Harshu, as we discussed the issue is not 1:1 dot-com fraud, but a level of overvaluation. Perhaps the issue is simply big tech overstates earnings through accounting games which benefit the shares they receive as SBC. Recall the paper the NBER released as a working paper in 2021 where they found $1 invested in the market created $5 of value. So let's say the AI CAPEX race slows down and earnings have already been juiced, we could in theory see a ramped up exodus of capital as most of these companies are ETF darlings. Couple this with the margin leverage used to fund flows into these ETF's. FINRA margin use shows debt balances at $1,126,49. As for your view on AMZN I suppose look at the price in 1999 and then 2001. I don't think Dr. Burry is predicting bankruptcy, but if you put money here and held you're looking at 2009 until you get to break-even. That's tied up capital for years. Opportunity cost is a real killer and I guess accounting would have saved you here :) As for bear strategies I am long bonds. At some point I will look at PUTs on IWM specifically given leverage situations. Otherwise cash. Don't think I see value in big tech here :) -Sean