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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (97141)	11/23/2025 5:22:52 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 97558

It dumped from 85 to 55 the first 15-months Biden was in the big chair, so there's no magic in changing administrations. If you look at the net beginning to end for an administration for consumer sentiment, Trump is far behind Biden to date. It's still early, but there's very little chance Trump makes up for the 30-point deficit from his 1st term in this term with the horrific start already.

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (97141)	11/23/2025 5:26:57 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97558

I was looking at it more in terms of where each president ended vs where they started. True that Trump is far from the end of his term. But also unlikely that he can do better given his policies and how far he has dropped. My fun activity this afternoon has been hashing out and quantifying the US political economy. It's detailed enough and concrete enough to be worth publishing. But it will likely cause too much noise and bias several levers against me. Here's some of the conclusions. It still confirms my previous analysis and the timeline for the "beginning of the end" and Trump's effect. Demography tells you the US hits maximum structural strain in the 2030s. Rentier capitalism + weaponized finance + Trump-style policy are all accelerants. The true tipping point is not a single number but the moment when State concludes* that either:* it must give up meaningful rents to keep the game going, or it must lock in power more nakedly, accepting a shift toward open autocracy.