To: Gene J. Abel who wrote (1595 ) 2/26/1998 2:06:00 PM From: Maverick Respond to of 12623
RS Conf. Report on CIEN - the reason for the deadcat bounce Silicon Valley: Robertson Stephens Tech Conference: Ciena Tries to Win Back Investors By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 2/26/98 10:48 AM ET SAN FRANCISCO -- Anxious investors at the BancAmerica Robertson Stephens Technology Conference want reassurance that Ciena's (CIEN:Nasdaq) technology hasn't lost its magic. They can rest easier for now, because Ciena has released yet another tonic to soothe their fears. Ciena rose to prominence by developing products that allow phone carriers to boost the capacity or bandwidth on their existing networks. But when the company disclosed last week that major customer WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq) will buy fewer Ciena products early this year, it prompted a mutiny among momentum investors. The company must now prove it is not an ill-fated technology play like Fore Systems (FORE:Nasdaq), whose fortunes paled when its flavor of "asynchronous transfer mode" or ATM went out of style last year. Bandwidth will remain scarce for the foreseeable future -- ensuring high demand for Ciena's products, according to one buy-side pro at Forte Capital, who asked not to be named. He says his firm might buy shares of Ciena, since the stock has been washed clean of momentum money and now trades at somewhat of a bargain. Ciena has skidded from 58 1/8 on Feb. 19 to 41 11/16. CEO Pat Nettles, in an interview at the Robertson Stephens conference Wednesday, said Ciena's "dense wavelength division multiplexing" systems are unlikely to be eclipsed by another technology. DWDM, as it's called, allows more waves of light to wash through an optical fiber. That means more email messages, Web pages and telephone calls are traveling through the pipe. DWDM "really enhanced one dimension of a three-dimensional problem," Nettles said. The three dimensions of a fiber-optic system are the number of fibers, the speed of light transmission and the number of wavelengths through which a light signal travels. Two dimensions aren't changed too easily. Installing more fibers costs a lot of money, and the speed limit cannot be pushed much further. So DWDM changes the third dimension -- it multiplies the number of wavelengths.