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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vector1 who wrote (4192)	2/26/1998 4:00:00 AM
From: Rocketman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9719

Yeah, I noticed DURAs $400M pile of bucks, pretty impressive cash stash. They ought to be spending for the future and not fretting the quarter, screw the money mongers I mean managers. Scott McNealy at Sun Micro used to get hammered for the same kind of crap, he'd sacrifice quarterly numbers to get better long term growth and the traders would just scream. They used to compare it to the Japanese method of planning and playing long term, not just for the quarter, but I guess anything Japanese and economic is certainly out of vogue these days. I expect the same out of GENZL for instance too, they aren't playing for profit, but for growth - damn the PE ratios. Just because you have a revenue stream, doesn't mean you should stop growing the company. I'd expect some of the retail DURA holders to panic tomorrow AM and then see some flattening and rebound by late AM EST. This looks like a classic dead cat to me, and I'd figure it to bounce. This market kind of reminds me of last spring when the Dow was hitting highs, but if you missed a target or talked of weakness or expansion the traders beat the crap out of you. Hey, what's Greenspan been smoking? The guy is still ultra-paranoid about inflation. What gives with him? I'm guessing that he pushes us into deflation, which I don't think would be too dangerous as long as he doesn't take it too far. Look at the energy prices dropping (Bay Area gasoline gouge prices notwithstanding), food prices dropping, no signs of inflation, the fed deficit (at least the way they account for it) non-existent, WHAT INFLATION??? He is so damned focused on the official unemployment stats. They are about as reliable as a Saddam Hussein promise. They seem to conveniently forget that they base these numbers on people on the unemployment insurance rolls. They totally forget about people like me who aren't working because we don't want to, the people who gave up on jobs long ago when there weren't any to be had, the people who quit there jobs or for other reasons don't qualify for unemployment, the underemployed in part time scut jobs who can do much much more, and all the people on the median strips holding out signs and their hands. Hell, just putting the homeless to work would probably make a hell of a dent in fulfilling the need for workers. Generally, the system for matching people with jobs in this country is scattered, haphazard and inefficient. I must admit that everytime I see one of these healthy looking people standing with a sign day in and day out that my first thought is get off your ass and get a job, their are just tons of them available around here. Granted there are some extreme labor shortages, such as in the Bay Area, but I'm not convinced that this is going to cause inflation. Just look at the pricing structure of our primary products from this area, electronics - sure doesn't seem like much inflation in this sector. The productivity curve is staying way ahead of the costs, and the Asians are just going to be dumping their stuff cheaper and cheaper. I'm still looking for donations to buy Greenspan a boat and send him on a retirement fishing trip.....

To: Vector1 who wrote (4192)	2/26/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: James Silverman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9719

Do you worry that Spiros albuterol is nothing more than a generic drug in a fancy package? Offhand I can think of 4 companies that have generic inhalers on the market, or near. I'm sure there are more than this as well. ALO IVX KOSP DURA Not to mention Sepracor and their chiral version which should be out in maybe 2 years (MDI, DPI). I agree the cash hoard is a big plus, as is their huge investment in a 450 person sales force. They also have off the book r&d with Spiros II that needs to be accounted for ultimately. My main worry down the road here would be that with a fancy generic, once approved, it may be difficult to meet optimistic Wall Street forecasts at least initially. Another concern would be if it takes longer than expected for Spiros albuterol to get approved-another way to hack 1999/2000 eps. You want to see some smart insider selling--look it up. I'm actually fairly positive on the stock longer term, just thought I'd raise a few issues. I checked instinet pre-market for a chance to jump in, unfortunately the stock was trading up. So now comes the inevitable hate mail :-) Jim