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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.S. who wrote (8282)	2/26/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: SJSharky	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

Joe-- It certainly is a big IF! That is why I don't understand the valuation. It is as if the market has priced it assuming everything will go well for AOL...no "risk" element has been taken into account when valuing the stock. I still believe that if AOL can reach those earnings targets that the analysts have set, the valuation is a little steep, but justified. I simply don't think that there's a 100% chance they can make those targets (and I being bearish, think less than 50% chance given their new strategy). The street just hasn't included that in the stock price. --Ryan That's a big if as you correctly indicated. Even if this is true it certainly is not got enough. Everyone has to admit that there is a good chance that AOL won't make such numbers. If if does, then this means that AOL will be worth perhaps close to 100 in three years or so.