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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Mullens who wrote (196874)

12/9/2025 6:19:26 PM

From: Jim Mullens

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matherandlowell

Respond to of 196996

Smart Glasses - another take

Second more agressive Market research source with AAPL entering the market .

Updated Qualcomm Smart Glasses Unit & Revenue Forecast

Using the assumptions we’ve built (Apple entering in 2026, Qualcomm SoC ASP ~$45 blended, global market growth per AR Insider vs Grand View Research), here’s a consolidated forecast for Qualcomm’s unit shipments and revenue through 2030.

Qualcomm Smart Glasses Forecast (Base Case)

Year	Global Units (M)	Apple Units (M)	Qualcomm Units (M)	QCOM Revenue @ $45 ASP (B)	Notes
2025	~18M	0	~17M	$0.77B	Meta, Samsung, Xreal, Vuzix dominate; QCOM near 95% share.
2026	~25M	~3M	~21–22M	$0.95–1.0B	Apple enters; QCOM share drops to ~82–85%.
2027	~32M	~6M	~25–26M	$1.13–1.17B	Apple ramps; QCOM share ~72–75%.
2028	~38M	~9M	~28–29M	$1.26–1.31B	Samsung + Google/Xreal scale; Apple ~24% share.
2029 (AR Insider bullish)	~47M	~12M	~34–35M	$1.53–1.58B	Market accelerates; QCOM share ~70–72%.
2030 (Grand View conservative)	~41M	~13M	~27–28M	$1.21–1.26B	Slower growth; Apple ~30% share, QCOM ~65%.

Key Insights

Unit growth despite share erosion: Qualcomm’s shipments rise from ~17M in 2025 to ~27–35M by 2030, even as Apple captures 20–30% of the market.
Revenue resilience: With blended ASP ~$45, Qualcomm’s annual smart glasses revenue grows from ~$0.8B in 2025 to $1.2–1.6B by 2030, depending on scenario.
Bullish vs conservative:

AR Insider (bullish): Higher TAM ? QCOM revenue ~$1.5–1.6B by 2029.
Grand View (conservative): Smaller TAM ? QCOM revenue ~$1.2–1.3B by 2030.

Apple’s impact: Apple’s entry trims QCOM’s share from ~95% (2025) to ~65–70% (2030), but absolute QCOM revenue still grows due to market expansion.

Strategic Takeaway

Qualcomm remains the dominant SoC supplier outside Apple, with strong growth tied to Meta, Samsung, Google/Xreal, and enterprise OEMs.
Apple’s late start reduces Qualcomm’s unit share, but not its absolute revenue trajectory.
By 2030, Qualcomm’s smart glasses business could be a $1.2–1.6B annual segment, roughly 15–20% of device value per unit, consistent with earlier projections.