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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Wolf who wrote (196910)	12/11/2025 4:53:18 PM
From: Optntrdr1999	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196972

if the tax regs change the AMT for QCOM etal - specifically QCOM should recoup the $5bil tax charge they took in September for the tax law change - seemingly now being eliminated -

To: Bill Wolf who wrote (196910)

12/11/2025 6:21:31 PM

From: Jim Mullens

2 Recommendations

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manning18
Prophet of Profits

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 196972

Bill re: Corporations Tax Break boost –AAPL / QCOM R&D vs New Successful Major Product Launches
Copilot Q&A-

I had a difficult time with Copilot with this one as its bias towards AAPL prevented it for giving a straight objective answer), and 2) it also took several iterations with QCOM as major items originally omitted.

Summary (Copilot) >>>>

Over the past five years, Apple and Qualcomm have pursued sharply different innovation strategies. Apple invested about $144 billion in R&D from 2021 to 2025, yet its only truly successful new major product was the Apple Silicon Mac platform, which transformed the Mac line and gave Apple full control over its hardware ecosystem. At the same time, Apple has poured billions more into its in-house modem program, begun in 2019 after acquiring Intel’s modem assets. Despite years of heavy spending, Apple’s modem remains uncompetitive in performance, efficiency, and feature support compared with Qualcomm’s state-of-the-art Snapdragon modems, forcing Apple to continue relying on Qualcomm for iPhone connectivity. Other launches — the Vision Pro headset (a new category but commercially unsuccessful) and refinements like the Apple Watch Ultra, AirPods Pro 2, and iPhone 17 series — did not open new markets. In short, Apple’s massive R&D spend has been concentrated on deepening existing categories and pursuing a costly modem effort that has yet to deliver competitive results, rather than expanding successfully into new markets.

Qualcomm, by contrast, invested roughly $42 billion in R&D over the same period and used that spend to diversify into multiple new markets, each anchored by AI integration. Its Snapdragon 8-series processors continued to dominate mobile with on-device AI engines, while the Snapdragon X Elite PC chips powered by Oryon CPUs marked Qualcomm’s entry into the AI PC market, competing directly with Apple Silicon. In the data center, Qualcomm launched the Cloud AI 100 accelerators for inference workloads. In automotive, the Snapdragon Ride platform brought AI-driven ADAS and infotainment to GM, BMW, Hyundai, Mercedes, and others. In extended reality and smart glasses, the Snapdragon XR2 platforms powered Meta’s Quest headsets and Ray-Ban smart glasses, as well as devices from Google, Samsung, Lenovo, and Pico. Finally, in industrial edge computing, Qualcomm introduced Dragonwing processors with integrated AI accelerators for robotics, smart cameras, and industrial PCs, securing customers like Bosch, Honeywell, Siemens, and Zebra.

The contrast is clear: Apple spent three times more but produced only one major successful new product, while Qualcomm spent less and successfully expanded into five distinct new markets — PCs, data centers, automotive, XR/smart glasses, and industrial IoT — all driven by AI and validated by strong customer adoption.

Apple >>>>

Q- List Apple R&D over the past 5 years and major successful new product launches.

A-here’s the direct combined view of Apple’s R&D spending over the past five years alongside its major successful new product launches (excluding refinements and excluding Vision Pro since it was not successful).

Apple R&D Spend vs. Major Successful New Products (FY 2021–2025)

Fiscal Year	R&D Spend	Major Successful New Product Launches
2021	$21.9B	Apple Silicon Mac platform (M1) — successful transition from Intel, new architecture ecosystem
2022	$26.3B	— (no new major product; Watch Ultra* was a refinement)*
2023	$29.9B	— (no new major product; AirPods Pro 2* was a refinement)*
2024	$31.4B	— (Vision Pro* was new but not successful, excluded)*
2025	$34.6B	— (iPhone 17 series was a refinement; no new major product)

Takeaway

Total R&D spend (2021–2025): ~$144B.
Major successful new product launch: Apple Silicon Mac platform (M1 ? M5 transition).
Other launches (Watch Ultra, AirPods Pro 2, iPhone 17, Vision Pro): refinements or unsuccessful ? excluded from “major successful new products.”

Apple poured ~$144B into R&D over five years, but only one truly successful new major product launch emerged: the Apple Silicon Mac transition.

QCOM Q & A >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Qualcomm R&D Spend (Past 5 Years)

2021: $7.2B
2022: $8.2B
2023: $8.8B
2024: $8.9B
2025: $9.0B
Total (2021–2025): ~$42B

Major Successful New Products & Markets Entered

Mobile (Core Market)

Snapdragon 8-series processors (Gen 1 ? Gen 4)

Flagship chips for premium Android smartphones.
Integrated AI engines (Hexagon NPU) for camera enhancements, gaming, voice assistants, and security.
Customers: Samsung, Xiaomi, OnePlus, Oppo, Vivo, Honor.

PCs (Distinct New Market)

Snapdragon X Elite (2025) — powered by Oryon CPUs.

Qualcomm’s entry into the Windows on ARM AI PC market.
Features dedicated AI NPUs for generative AI, productivity, and real-time translation.
Customers: Lenovo, HP, Dell, Microsoft (Surface).

Data Centers (Distinct New Market)

Cloud AI 100 accelerators — inference chips for AI workloads.

Purpose-built for machine learning inference with efficiency and low latency.
Customers: AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, enterprise AI deployments.

Automotive

Snapdragon Ride platform — AI-powered ADAS and infotainment.

Uses AI for perception, decisioning, and cockpit personalization.
Customers: GM, BMW, Hyundai, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, LG (AI vehicle partnership).

Extended Reality (XR & Smart Glasses)

Snapdragon XR2/XR2+ platforms — powering AR/VR headsets and smart glasses.

AI used for spatial tracking, hand/gesture recognition, and immersive rendering.
Customers: Meta (Quest headsets, Ray-Ban smart glasses), Google (AR glasses prototypes), Samsung (XR collaboration), Lenovo (ThinkReality), Pico (ByteDance).

Edge Compute / IoT (Industrial Edge)

Qualcomm Edge AI platforms — chips for smart cameras, robotics, industrial IoT.
Dragonwing processors (2025) — ruggedized industrial CPUs with Oryon cores + integrated AI accelerators.

Targeting IoT, robotics, and industrial PCs.
Customers: Bosch, Honeywell, Siemens, Zebra Technologies.

Takeaway

R&D spend: ~$42B over 5 years.
Major successful new products: Snapdragon 8-series (mobile AI), X Elite (AI PC, Oryon CPUs), Cloud AI 100 (data center AI), Ride (automotive AI), XR2 (XR/smart glasses AI), Edge AI/IoT platforms, Dragonwing processors (industrial edge AI).
Distinct new markets entered:
- PCs (AI PCs)
- Data Centers (AI inference)
- Automotive (AI ADAS/infotainment)
- XR / Smart Glasses (AI spatial computing)
- Industrial Edge/IoT (AI edge compute)

To: Bill Wolf who wrote (196910)	12/12/2025 1:23:02 PM
From: Bill Wolf	2 Recommendations Recommended By John Hayman waitwatchwander Respond to of 196972

Big Businesses Are Cashing In on Trump’s Tax Cuts Corporate tax revenue has quickly dipped since Republicans passed tax cuts this summer. But economists think these tax breaks might be worth it. By Andrew Duehren Reporting from Washington Dec. 12, 2025Updated 12:08 p.m. ET For most people, the tax cuts that President Trump signed into law this summer have yet to materialize. Only after Americans file their taxes next year will the savings become apparent, launching what Republicans hope will be a “refund boom” that lifts the public’s view of the economy. Many of America’s largest companies have not had to wait. In the months since the law’s passage in July, corporations like Walmart, Amazon, Verizon and Eli Lilly have all disclosed in securities filings that the law would reduce their cash tax payments in the near term. AT&T Inc. projected that it would save as much as $2 billion in taxes just this year. Those corporate tax savings have already started to have an effect on the federal budget. Between July and November, the last full month of data, revenue from the corporate income tax has dropped by roughly a third, or $52 billion, compared to the same period the year before, according to Treasury data. nytimes.com . . . . *CHAT GPT:* 1) Overview: Trump’s Corporate Tax Breaks and How They Work Under the updated Republican tax legislation signed in 2025 (often referenced as the One Big Beautiful Bill), several key corporate tax provisions have been reinstated or expanded: A. Immediate expensing/bonus depreciation: Corporations can immediately deduct the full cost of qualifying capital expenditures instead of amortizing them over years. This improves near-term cash flow by reducing taxable income up front. The Wall Street Journal B. Research & Development deductions: Domestic R&D expenses can again be deducted immediately, rather than capitalized over several years. This change can be especially material for tech companies with significant R&D budgets. Forbes C. Permanent lower corporate rate: The core corporate tax rate of 21%, originally set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, remains in place and certain enhancements are made permanent. Kiplinger Across the economy, these changes have driven lower cash taxes paid and improved liquidity for many large firms, boosting cash flows available for investment, buybacks, dividends, or operational spending. The Wall Street Journal 2) Qualcomm’s Specific Situation: A Mixed Tax Impact For QCOM, the tax law has had both positive and challenging effects: Positive: Lower Future Cash Tax Payments Qualcomm’s most recent SEC filings explicitly state that the reinstated tax provisions—especially immediate expensing of domestic R&D—are expected to favorably affect cash flow from operations by reducing future cash tax obligations. This is valuable for a high-R&D tech company like Qualcomm. SEC Complication: Deferred Tax Adjustments and AMT Exposure However, Qualcomm also reported a $5.7 billion non-cash tax charge in late 2025 tied to the new tax law. This charge reflects establishing a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets and anticipates exposure to the corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT) starting in fiscal 2026. This one-time charge reduced GAAP net income and contributed to a stock price dip. MarketWatch+1 In simple terms: Cash taxes likely decline thanks to accelerated deductions. Accounting (GAAP) tax expense may be higher or volatile because of deferred tax accounting adjustments. AMT considerations could reduce the value of some tax assets in future years. SEC This mix means near-term earnings metrics *look worse in headline GAAP results even though cash tax outlays should be lower over time.* 3) Strategic and Financial Implications for QCOM Cash Flow and Investment: Lower cash taxes free up capital for R&D, capital expenditures, dividends, stock buybacks, strategic M&A, or debt reduction. Qualcomm has already deployed capital aggressively, including significant share repurchases, though this also reduces financial flexibility. Panabee Valuation Impact: Markets may price in lower effective tax rates and stronger free cash flow, which can support higher valuation multiples. However, one-time charges reporting as losses occasionally compress short-term earnings and can weigh on the stock. Future Tax Profile: The shift in international tax provisions (e.g., changes to FDII/FDDEI) means Qualcomm’s offshore income may be taxed differently, which will also affect long-term tax planning and effective rates. SEC 4) Macro Context: How Big Businesses Are Cashing In The wider narrative about corporations benefiting from Trump’s tax cuts generally points to: Significant reductions in cash tax payments for many large U.S. firms. Increased cash reserves that often go toward stock buybacks and dividends as opposed to new investment. TIME Retroactive deductions for capital expenditures that create a near-term windfall in cash flow. The Wall Street Journal While Qualcomm is a beneficiary of lower cash tax burdens, it has not escaped accounting complexities and future minimum tax exposure. 5) Investor Considerations Bullish factors: Strong R&D deduction benefits. Potential for improved cash flow boosting investor returns. Enhanced freedom to allocate capital strategically. Bearish or risk factors: GAAP earnings distortion from one-time tax charges. AMT and international tax regime changes adding complexity. Market reaction sensitive to earnings beats/misses influenced by tax adjustments. Summary: Trump’s tax breaks are lowering corporate cash taxes broadly, and for Qualcomm in particular, they are increasing near-term cash flow through enhanced deductions. However, non-cash accounting charges and future AMT exposure complicate earnings results and require careful analysis by investors. Overall, the tax law is a net positive for cash flow but not without earnings volatility and structural tax planning challenges for QCOM. SEC