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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (78712)	12/13/2025 8:48:17 AM
From: Harshu Vyas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78740

Yeah, I think this is the most predicted bubble ever. Makes me think there is no bubble. Or even - if there is one - it's easy to avoid. (OT: went to a uni investment competition in London as a grad just to hear what people thought - every student mentioned Michael Burry and every student said the market was a bubble.) Either way, I think the job of an investor is to find undervalued opportunities and forget about everything else. In the past I suspect it was easier - no social media, no "big shot" investors voicing their views, information lags, no podcasts hosting CEOs etc. Now everyone has an opinion on everything because there's swaths of random information circulating the internet - and it feels like you're stupid if you don't have an opinion. I think I chose the wrong heroes early on. As for me, ignoring the bubble and buying what I find has worked. Small positions here and there, concentration when I'm confident. My largest position - over 75% of my portfolio - is Hardide PLC. I aim to hold it for as long as possible. (My writeup in June: Hardide PLC 24.06.2025.pdf - note my valuation section is wrong. If HDD reach £10m revenues, profits will be much higher than £1m (a £1.1m profit is consensus for this year!). I failed to correctly model the operating leverage which I have learnt lots about recently.) A new interesting idea is Derwent London - a London-focused office REIT. London has underperformed since Brexit. Office space obviously did poorly due to Covid. But property developers converted offices to resi/hotels etc. Now there's a shortage of high quality office space in London. Makes for an interesting opportunity. Allocated 15% of my portfolio to it from a tracking position (tracking positions have also worked well for me (h/t Paul Sr)). Rent increases will be slower than interest rate increases this year and next (hence, earnings fall which the market has priced in), but management will likely purge debt where they can and rent increases will be easier to pass on over time as the shortage worsens. Further, given it's so difficult to build in London due to mad red-tape and bureaucracy, a solution won't materialise quickly. (OT: I also noticed that Buffett bought REITs for his personal portfolio around the time of the dotcom bubble and benefited from the crazy run up to the GFC - which most don't know since BRK itself typically doesn't buy REITs and Buffett's personal portfolio is a well-kept secret.)