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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (78720)	12/13/2025 10:41:47 AM
From: Elroy	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 78740

I question the idea that being able to focus extremely well, being extremely smart, having a significant amount of time, and having reasonable resources really gives some greater likelihood that you'll do better than a straightforward simple investment approach. For example. Lets say we do that process, or we just buy GOOG. I'd bet on GOOG over the next ten years against a team of 4-6 smart guys with sufficient resources and time and smartness and they've all got 20 years of investment experience. They're trying to invest in a collection of stocks that does the best possible performance over ten years, and I get GOOG. GOOG probably wins. Owning GOOG doesn't pay taxes, and our "group" of smart professionals is probably going to trade, and pay taxes. GOOG seems well positioned for the rest of our life. Those guys have to keep finding stocks that a year from now will look better than they did a year ago (thus, the price went up quite a lot in the past year). That's possible to do. That's how you get super winning stocks, buy them before their greatness gets recognized by others, and then you enjoy all of the share price appreciation when others finally see the greatness that you forecast before it arrived. But a few misses (the greatness you forecast never arrives, in fact, the company goes bankrupt, oops) can ruin a lot of slow steady GOOG annual upward performance. Yeah, this Burry guy got one pick correct, at a time of massive volatility, and became a celebrity. That happens to a few people in every crisis. There was some Lehman lady in the '87 crash, and Nouriel Rabini in the dotcom bubble, and then they were pundits for a while but it winds up they just one big call correct once and were not able to replicate that lucky prognostication again and again, for whatever reason. Personally I'm out of good ideas at the moment. Haven't got a clue what to buy with confidence. I like to buy stocks that have some path to 100% gain in 18-24 months, not a high likelihood that they will gain that much but a path (if this happens, and that happens, it will double). Can't think of one stock in that mold at the moment. But we'll see, if SIMO gets down to $75 on this current dip it's pretty easy to see it getting to $150 within two years, so I'll come back if it dips that low.