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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (218483)	12/15/2025 6:30:12 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218598

from behind the curtain zerohedge.com Gold Goes Vertical — Again? BY THE MARKET EAR TUESDAY, DEC 16, 2025 - 0:18 Goldilongs Gold continues squeezing, but we’re approaching delicate short-term levels. The question now is whether this turns into squeeze 2.0, or sets up a near-term double top. RSI is elevated, but far from extreme levels we saw in October. Source: LSEG Workspace Following "chaos" Gold moving in close tandem with the chaotic price action in the Japanese 10 year. Don't forget that gold remains the "everything" hedge. Source: LSEG Workspace Gold - just getting started? Imagine the pain if we were to follow the 1970's trajectory... Source: Bloomberg Mighty central banks The central bank gold bid remains very strong. Latest via GS: 1. Central Bank Demand Resilience: October buying at 49 tonnes (vs.17 tonnes pre-2022 avg), led by Qatar (20t) and China (15t), signaling sustained hedging of geopolitical/financial risks with low price sensitivity during volatility. 2. Price Target & Fed Mechanism: Gold projected to reach $4,900 by 2026 driven by central bank buying + Fed easing; each 1bp rise in US gold portfolio share (current: 0.17%) lifts price 1.4%. 3. Forward Demand Forecast: 70 tonnes/month average central bank buying forecast for 2026, reflecting multi-year reserve diversification trend beyond October’s 49t surge. Source: GS Loving rate cuts "Since the onset of the current easing cycle in September 2024, gold prices have increased by 75%, while during hiking in 2022–23 the gains were moderate at 25%, as geopolitical risks and other structural shifts offset the negative impacts of the rate increase" Source: ANZ Undervalued vs SPX Gold isn’t expensive versus the S&P and remains under-ownedrelative to other assets. Despite gold rising ~60% versus an ~18% gain in the S&P this year, pushing the ratio to 0.64, its highest since the pandemic, the relationship is still well below the extremes seen in 2011–12 and pre-2000. That leaves room either for equities to reprice lower, or for gold to move higher. Source: ANZ Asia hungry for more ETF holdings have risen by more than 700 tonnes this year, led by strong inflows from China and India, with China’s holdings more than doubling to 244 tonnes. After mid-year outflows, inflows have accelerated over the past two months, supported by policy changes in China, including a pilot program allowing major insurers to allocate up to 1% of assets to gold, while weakness in property and equities is likely to keep domestic investment demand strong. Source: ANZ Geopolitics Before you get too bullish… easing geopolitical risk tends to weaken gold, via its inverse relationship with policy uncertainty, potentially capping prices as tensions cool. Source: DB

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (218483)	12/15/2025 6:31:58 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218598

ditto zerohedge.com Battleground Zone: S&P 500 Under Pressure As Rotation Trade Cools BY TYLER DURDEN TUESDAY, DEC 16, 2025 - 12:05 AM Authored by Michael Ball, Bloomberg macro strategist, Equities are again under pressure Monday, with hopes fading that Friday’s declines were just a pause in the reacceleration rotation trade that’s seen cyclical, value, and small cap outperform in recent weeks. Given how far many of these Main Street proxies have already run, any wobble in the growth outlook now risks a sharper drawdown. The base case stays primed for gains into year-end and early 2026, but the payoff now hinges on whether data can validate how far the “real economy rotation” has already run. The backdrop is still unusually friendly for risk with the Fed’s easing, fiscal policy turning into a tailwind and growth not cracking. That’s led markets to lean hard into expectations of a clean boost to first-half 2026 activity from the effects of the budget bill and looser financial conditions. Recent price action helps us make the argument that this is rotation within equities, not out of them. Last week’s contradiction — the Russell 2000 breaking to fresh highs on strong breadth while the Nasdaq lagged — is exactly what you’d expect given the better growth outlook. That improved breadth makes the tape more resilient, even if the risk-reward in obvious expressions like Russell 2000 calls is less compelling after the recent breakout. Option positioning on the SPX tell a similar story -- there’s still room for upside, but it’s now more conditional and more expensive to express. SpotGamma leans bullish into year-end on the back of further volatility compression, as long as SPX holds above their new risk pivot at 6,840, raised from 6,800 after traders added large downside puts around that level that increased negative gamma underneath. Monday’s decline is a troubling development, and the need to quickly recapture the 6,840 level is critical. [url=][/url] Finally, volatility pricing on Friday underlined how reluctant investors are to pay for protection into the holidays despite put skew richening. The SPX fell more than 1% intraday and the VIX briefly popped about 20%, yet fixed-strike vols finished lower on the day, signaling a release of event premium after FOMC, Oracle and Broadcom rather than a rush to add fresh hedges. Research by Susquehanna International Group shows that, over the past 25 years, the VIX tends to grind lower through December and usually troughs around Christmas. Put together, this is a market that wants to push higher into year-end on better breadth, a friendlier policy mix and a volatility regime that still rewards sellers more than buyers, but has started to show that growth optimism may have run too far too fast.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (218483)	12/15/2025 6:33:07 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218598

ditto ditto zerohedge.com Gold Rally Is Blazing A Trail For Commodities BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY, DEC 15, 2025 - 11:25 PM Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist, The bull market in gold should remain intact next year, with demand spreading to commodities in general. Is it over? It’s a legitimate question after gold’s explosive performance this year, but there’s little reason to doubt the ascent can’t continue, albeit at a slower pace. Not only that, commodities are set to join the fray as the hunt for real assets broadens out in a more inflationary world. Nothing moves in a straight line, so it’s fair to expect some sort of pullback in gold next year, but the fundamental underpinnings will keep the bull market in place. The same applies for silver, although as gold’s volatile cousin, its ride could be a lot more stomach churning. It’s critical to remember that in regime shifts, recent history is no longer a guide, but a shackle. Gold’s rally this decade may have been formidable, but it’s still not a patch on its near-vertical rise in the late 1970s.Investors should keep an open mind. [url=][/url] Bullion’s rise in this cycle was initiated by strong central bank demand from emerging-market countries. That drew in retail investors, too. Neither looks like they’re about to turn into net sellers. EM central banks started ramping up their gold purchases after the bruising of the GFC. That’s continued uninterrupted ever since, with total holdings more than doubling to over 400 million ounces. But there was a sea change in reserve buying after the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022. Central bank purchases of dollar assets stopped rising, while those of gold quickened. And as the price of gold started to pick up, valuations rose. As a result, the dollar value of bullion reserves surged ahead of other dollar-denominated reserve assets. [url=][/url] The gold buying of EM central banks has leveled off for now. But there is no obvious reason for them to turn into significant net sellers. The case for diversifying from the dollar has not weakened: the freezing of Russia’s reserve assets still sets a precedent for other countries deemed miscreants by the West, and there remains a US administration inimical to the dollar-based global trading system. Furthermore, it’s conceivable developed-market central banks could start buying gold too. They have been net sellers since 1970s, but they would also benefit from adding to their holdings, as the risk of fiat currency debasement has risen with the preponderance of historically high fiscal deficits. Central-bank zeal for gold has also spread to retail investors. As with the banks, EM buyers were first off the mark, while buyers in North America and Europe only belatedly joined in (using ETF purchases as a proxy for retail trade). Moreover, Asian investors have resumed their buying with even more verve after a brief hiatus mid-year. [url=][/url] Certainly in Europe and North America – where ETF purchases are much larger than in Asia – there is little sign that buying is reaching the sort of climax that typically rings the bell for a major reversal in gold prices. It will take an erstwhile buyer of gold to turn into a net seller to seriously jeopardize the rally: there just does not look like a catalyst for this yet. In a world profligate with risks and uncertainty, gold serves as an unimpeachable asset, insulated from the financial system and outside the clutches of governments who will increasingly be tempted to debase their currencies to inflate away their colossal debt loads. But other assets resistant to debasement, ie real assets, will also look increasingly attractive alongside gold and other precious metals. Commodities stand out in this regard. The last time inflation was persistently elevated was in the 1970s, when commodities provided the second-best real return of the major asset types, after gold. [url=][/url] More commodities are breaking out of their post-pandemic three-year ranges, including aluminum, tin, LME copper, coffee, live cattle and natural gas. Further, inflows into commodity ETFs have risen rapidly this year. The previous two times that happened, in 2009 and 2021, it foreshadowed a significant rise in inflation. [url=][/url] The market is singularly not positioned for a reacceleration in inflation, yet that is just what we may get. Gold, silver and other precious metals are already delivering impressive returns as the market hedges not only the risk of debasement of fiat currencies, but the fragility of the financial system itself. Commodities are in a position to also fulfill that role next year. But they could see much greater upside than gold as even a minuscule re-allocation away from the vastly larger stocks and bonds universe would be like putting a firehose through a straw. 2025 was gold’s year, but 2026 could well belong to commodities.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (218483)	12/15/2025 6:36:03 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218598

watching Japan zerohedge.com The Japan Rate Shock Is Hitting AI BY THE MARKET EAR MONDAY, DEC 15, 2025 - 20:00 Japan rates and the AI connection We’ve written extensively about the implications of the rise in Japan’s long end. This isn’t a local story, it carries global spillover risk. Notably, NVDA topped almost perfectly as the Japanese 10-year kicked off its latest explosive move. Source: LSEG Workspace Starting to bite? NDX was in full no-care mode until the latest surge in Japanese rates. There’s clearly more driving tech and AI than Japan’s long end alone, but this latest move is starting to bite. Source: LSEG Workspace The Korean wobble SK Hynix started wobbling just when the Japanese 10 year went parabolic. Source: LSEG Workspace The Japanese wobble Japan’s AI sentimentor, SoftBank, peaked just as the Japanese 10-year kicked off its latest explosive move. Source: LSEG Workspace

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (218483)	12/15/2025 6:37:31 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218598

some bird in some mine zerohedge.com Hedge Fund CIO: "If Nvidia Is This Cycle's Coalmine, Oracle Is The Canary" BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY, DEC 15, 2025 - 07:55 PM By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management Cisco finally regained the old all-time high. It took 25 years. In March 2000, the network equipment maker surpassed Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable company. Julian Robertson published his final letter for Tiger Management that week, writing, “The difficulty is predicting when this change will occur and in this regard I have no advantage. What I do know is that there is no point in subjecting our investors to risk in a market which I frankly do not understand. Consequently, after thorough consideration, I have decided to return all capital to our investors...” The inexorable rise in tech/growth stocks relative to value stocks had reached a point where even the mightiest investors of the time were brought to their knees. Every great trader knows that the most powerful bull and bear markets rise and fall to such a point where nearly every sober-minded contrarian concedes defeat. Which makes it all the more extraordinary that even the most brilliant investors, armed with their armies of analysts, steeped in market history, nevertheless succumb to capitulation near market turns. It has always been so and will forever be. Markets are superorganisms, drawing strength from every participant willing to play. They are humanity’s first form of Artificial Superintelligence. And as such, markets manage to outwit even the geniuses amongst us. Anyhow, Oracle got smoked this week. If Nvidia is this cycle’s coalmine, Oracle is the canary. [ZH: as we said over a month ago]. [url=][/url] In both stocks, investors convince themselves that they can see reflections of past crises. Most of today’s investors have only read about the great booms and busts of previous generations. And with the passage of time, such historical cycles appear simple, obvious even. Which allows us to trace neat parallel lines between then and now. But of course, this is one of the most surefire ways that an Artificial Superintelligence deceives, before knocking us to our knees.

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (218483)	12/15/2025 6:41:26 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 218598

I suspect AI shall succeed, in and then out of China; just a suspicion zerohedge.com If AI Fails To Deliver On Its Vast Productivity Promises, The Result Will Be A Devastating Depression BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY, DEC 15, 2025 - 10:35 AM Moments after the Fed's surprising decision to not only cut rates but to launch Reserve Management Purchases, QE Lite, Not QE, or whatever one wants to call it, we said that, in response to Powell's comment that the implication of the Fed's rather bizarre forecasts is higher productivity spawned by AI, the US might as well "do $10 trillion fiscal stimulus for AI/data center capex? Fed joins Musk in betting on AI revolution." After all, if you are going all in and still printing the world's reserve currency, at least make sure you will emerge victorious from the civilizational AI war with China... as anything else would represent the way of the Western way of life. POWELL: IMPLICATION OF FED FORECASTS IS HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY In that case why not do $10 trillion fiscal stimulus for AI/data center capex? Fed joins Musk in betting on AI revolution. — zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 10, 2025 And now, One River's CIO, Eric Peters, agree with us: if going all in, make sure it is really all in. Excerpted from his latest weekly note to clients:* “Let me tell you a familiar story,” I said, discussing market risks, opportunities, in Stockholm this week. Early in my career, Sweden hit the wall. Decades of economic math that hadn’t quite added up had compounded to a point where a market unwind was unavoidable. As the crisis climaxed in late 1992, the central bank hiked overnight interest rates to 500% to punish speculative short-sellers of kronor. We made a small fortune in that market chaos. That was my first of many crises. Every one looked different. In each, investors, high and low, were brought to their knees. Some combination of overleverage, overreliance on parallels to the past, intellectual overconfidence, inadequate risk management, and lack of a sufficiently expansive imagination, is to blame. With each successive crisis since my start in 1989, central bankers and politicians intervened ever more aggressively to forestall economic cleansing, borrowing from the future to repay the past and secure the present. Such interventions have transferred risks and excesses from individuals and corporations onto the government balance sheet. The math of our federal debts and entitlement commitments no longer adds up. The consequences are compounding. I suspect that before my career is over, a sovereign crisis like Sweden’s in 1992 will erupt in the US. The only practical way to forestall this is through a productivity boom that materially lifts non-inflationary growth and repays our policy sins. This is why the US government is all in on the AI buildout. If AI fails to deliver on its vast promises, the risk is far wider than the tech sector. It will lead to a deep recession and massive budget deficits, which will catalyze a debt sustainability crisis that could make 2008 seem trivial. Sovereign debt crises are the most devastating of all financial calamities, because the buyer of last resort is the one in trouble. But I suspect that the AI boom doesn’t end neatly with Cisco retaking its 2000 highs, as it did this week. The parallels with the dot com boom/bust are all too evident and well publicized at this point. Which means we should still be long this bull market, while also running substantial downside hedges. Positioned for a world with two big fat tails.