To: Max2.0 who wrote (23790 ) 12/21/2025 11:33:23 AM From: QTI on SI 9 RecommendationsRecommended By Balancedinvestor Chairo Kiisu Ichiro eaglebear MikeAzu Mili21 and 4 more members
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23840 Re. I was curious whether these DSS people knew something important that I was missing. Just to be clear there are no DSS people per se (except for myself and the AI). DSS is an AI GPT model that I built for my own use, but I don't mind periodically sharing its output here as long as folks don't mind. More precisely, it is my framework, refined iteratively using my watchlist and portfolio datasets as well as publicly available financial data, with me acting as a sounding board, stress-tester, and formalizer, not the originator. If you want a concise explanation: DSS v2.0 measures whether a dividend investment delivers income without quietly destroying the capital it depends on. It is Not a dividend cut predictor. Here is a more detailed explaination if you or anyone else is interested:Dividend Safety Score (DSS v2.0) is a framework designed to answer one question: Is the income you’re receiving actually working for you — or is it quietly selling off your capital? It moves beyond traditional dividend metrics (yield, payout ratio, dividend history) and focuses on total economic reality . The Core Problem DSS Solves Many income investors fall into the same trap: High yield looks attractive Dividend keeps getting paid But the stock or fund keeps falling After several years, the investor realizes: “I got paid — but I’m still worse off.” DSS v2.0 exists to identify that outcome before it becomes obvious . The DSS v2.0 Formula (Conceptual) Dividend Safety Score v2.0 = Momentum + Capital Preservation + Yield Reality Each component matters. Missing any one of them breaks the income thesis. 1. Momentum (Is the Market Agreeing With You?) Momentum is not about short-term trading. It’s about whether capital is flowing toward or away from the asset . DSS looks at: Multi-period price trends (not just one snapshot) Directional consistency Whether weakness is cyclical or persistent Why it matters: Sustained negative momentum often precedes dividend stress — not the other way around. Dividends usually get cut after price damage, not before. 2. Capital Preservation (Is the Asset Holding Its Value?) This is the most important part of DSS v2.0. DSS asks: Over a multi-year period, is the asset flat, up, or down ? Is income offsetting capital loss — or merely masking it? How long would it take for dividends alone to recover losses? A key DSS rule: If breakeven requires more than ~5 years of perfect dividends, the yield is a mirage. This is where many “safe” dividend stocks and high-yield funds fail. 3. Yield Reality (Is the Yield Earned or Engineered?) DSS distinguishes between: Earned yield (cash flow supports payouts) Engineered yield (leverage, NAV erosion, ROC masking) High yield is not bad — unearned yield is . DSS does not automatically penalize: Return of capital Variable distributions Non-qualified income It penalizes them only when capital trends don’t support them . DSS v2.0 Scoring Bands DSS v2.0 assigns scores from 0 to 100 , grouped into tiers: 90–100 | Fortress – Income + capital both very strong 80–89 | Very Safe – Income works across cycles 70–79 | Safe – Acceptable, but monitor 60–69 | Caution – Income OK, capital fragile 50–59 | Elevated Risk – Yield may mask erosion <50 | Unsafe – Income is likely self-liquidating This makes comparisons across stocks, CEFs, BDCs, and sectors possible. What DSS v2.0 is not : A dividend cut predictor A yield ranking system A short-term trading model A valuation model A promise that price won’t fall It does not try to forecast markets. Instead, it asks: “Given what’s actually happened to capital, how honest is this income?” Why DSS v2.0 Uses Multi-Year Windows (Not 1 Quarter) Dividends are long-term commitments . DSS v2.0 emphasizes: 3-year capital behavior as a stress test Longer context where appropriate Recognition that valuation cycles exist — but capital outcomes still matter It explicitly rejects the idea that: “As long as the dividend pays, everything is fine.” The Key DSS v2.0 Insight Income that works must preserve capital. Income that destroys capital is not income — it’s liquidation. That’s the difference between: Owning yield And renting yield while paying for it yourself Why People Find DSS v2.0 Uncomfortable (At First) Because it: Challenges “dividend aristocrat” assumptions Forces acknowledgment of opportunity cost Exposes long-running yield traps Treats CEFs, stocks, and ETFs on equal footing But once understood, it answers the question income investors actually care about: “Will this still have done its job five years from now?” Hope this helps.