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To: rzborusa who wrote (73059)	12/22/2025 6:42:48 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 73111

re: Maybe you make a distinction from missiles to drones. I would put them in the same basket. Zero possibility, Russia has 20X w/o nukes. Reality probably ~ 1/1. The West is not really sending any more missiles to Ukraine. NATO has been demilitarized. The US is trying to rebuild inventories and is selling to Taiwan. There are some sporadic shipments from the US. Ukraine claims to be producing 30 missiles per day since August, but likely BS. Because they have never fired one at Russia in 5 months of its existence. There was a one time shipment of ATACMs from the US estimated to be 100, and the "sporadic" shipments were ~10, IIRC. Russia has Iskander, Kinzhal and Odesnik Kalibr, KH-101 in production. Estimate is 200-250 per month. US production of ATACMs is estimated between 25 and 60 per month, but just last week, US sale of 420 ATACMs to Taiwan, So, likely 0 to Ukraine for a while. Russia's 20x advantage in missiles is likely a conservative number. As far as drones wide range of claims for production, from 3000 to 6000 per month. Which would imply 1:1 in production, but as far as rate of firing these, Ukraine numbers are far cry from claimed production. Likely in 1,000 range, while Russia has fired 5,000 to 5,500 Geran drones each of last 2 months. So, 4:1 to 5:1 rate of fire of the long range drones in favor of Russia. From there, Russia has overabundance of air defense systems and missiles, while Ukraine has a shortage in air defense.