SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Technology Stocks & Market Talk With Don Wolanchuk -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: curiousmofo who wrote (207476)12/28/2025 9:08:57 AM
From: #Breeze3 Recommendations

Recommended By
mark2market
squareroot
toccodolce

  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 207682
 
Gold and Geopolitics Substack:

"The CME announced on Friday that silver futures margin requirements are going up again. Effective Monday, December 29th. Third hike in a month. Western silver is trading around $77, up 169% year-to-date, and the exchange that’s supposed to facilitate price discovery just keeps making it more expensive to play.

Now normally, margin hikes are used to crush the longs. That’s the playbook. That’s what happened to the Hunt Brothers in 1980. That’s what happened in 2011 when silver touched $49 and the CME raised margins five times in nine days. You jack up the cost of leverage until the speculators capitulate and the price collapses.

But here’s what’s different this time™.

The shorts are the ones who are fucked......................."

no01.substack.com

He presents that stats of current COMEX Silver contracts by class of ownership and why it's different this time.



To: curiousmofo who wrote (207476)12/28/2025 9:37:39 AM
From: #Breeze4 Recommendations

Recommended By
Goldilocks
mark2market
misu_byk
toccodolce

  Respond to of 207682
 
Here are the Silver stats for Annual production, demand (industrial and investment), above ground inventory, and silver ounces related to current comes long contracts. Breeze

Gemini AI:

"Annual global silver mine production is estimated at approximately 25,000 to 26,000 metric tons (roughly 800 to 840 million troy ounces) per year. Total annual supply, which includes both mine production and recycled silver, typically exceeds 30,000 metric tons(over 1 billion ounces).

Production by the Numbers (2024–2025)

  • 2024 Estimated Mine Output: Roughly 25,000 metric tons (819.7–837 million ounces), a slight increase of ~1% from 2023.
  • 2025 Forecast: Mined supply is expected to remain relatively flat at approximately 813 million ounces.
  • By-product Nature: Only about 25%–28% of silver comes from primary silver mines; the remaining 72%–75% is a byproduct of mining for copper, lead, zinc, and gold.
Top Silver-Producing Countries (2024 Estimates)

Mexico consistently leads global production, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the world's total output.

Annual global physical silver investment demand in 2024 was approximately 190.9 million ounces (about 5,938 metric tons), and is forecast to rise to around 204.4 million ounces in 2025. This category includes demand for bars, coins, and rounds.

Estimates for current total above-ground silver inventory vary widely depending on what is included, but generally fall between 20 and 50 billion ounces (roughly 622,000 to 1.55 million metric tons) in all forms. The amount of silver immediately available for trade in major market vaults is much lower.

Types of Above-Ground Silver Inventory

The total above-ground silver is categorized differently by various industry analysts, leading to differing figures.

  • Total Historically Mined: Approximately 1.74 million metric tons (about 55.9 billion troy ounces) of silver have been mined throughout history. A significant portion of this has been consumed in industrial applications, lost to corrosion, or exists in non-recoverable waste.
  • Identifiable Refined Stocks: The amount of silver in easily traceable, refined forms (bullion, coins, ETPs, exchange vaults) is estimated to be much lower, potentially in the range of 2.5 to 4 billion ounces of 0.999 fine silver.
  • Fabricated Products: Nearly 800,000 metric tons are estimated to exist in jewelry, decorative, and religious objects, much of which is recoverable if prices are right. A similar tonnage is thought to be in industrial products.
Market-Specific Holdings

Specific, reported inventories in major financial hubs offer a clearer picture of physically available metal for the markets:

  • London Vaults: As of the end of November 2025, vaults in London held 27,187 metric tons of silver.
  • Silver ETPs: Global holdings in silver exchange-traded products (ETPs) reached 1.13 billion ounces by mid-2025. These holdings are allocated to specific investors and are not readily available to satisfy industrial demand.
  • Supply Deficit: The silver market has experienced a persistent structural supply deficit for several consecutive years, with demand (especially industrial and investment demand) consistently outpacing mine production and recycling efforts
COMEX Long Contracts

The total number of silver ounces related to COMEX long contracts varies daily with market activity. Based on recent data (December 26, 2025), the total open interest for all types of silver futures contracts on the COMEX is approximately

570 million ounces. This total represents a significant amount of paper silver claims compared to the physical silver available for immediate delivery in COMEX vaults.

Calculation Breakdown

The total ounces are calculated by multiplying the number of open contracts for each type by their respective contract sizes and summing the results.

  • Standard Contracts: Each standard COMEX silver futures contract (SI) represents 5,000 troy ounces. Total open interest across all standard contract months as of December 26, 2025, was approximately 112,004 contracts, representing roughly 560 million ounces.
  • Micro Contracts: Each Micro silver futures contract (SIL) represents 1,000 troy ounces. Total open interest for micro contracts was around 10,000 contracts, adding another 10 million ounces.
  • Mini Contracts: There are also mini contracts (QI) representing 2,500 troy ounces, though the open interest for these at the end of 2025 was minimal in the available data.
Physical vs. Paper Ratio

A key market insight is the ratio of paper claims (represented by futures contracts) to physically available silver.

Registered Inventory: COMEX maintains "Registered" silver inventory, which is the metal specifically available for physical delivery against futures contracts.
  • Coverage Ratio: The ratio of paper ounces (total open interest) to physical "Registered" ounces is often very high. In late 2022, it was reported as high as 17.4 paper ounces for each physical ounce of Registered silver.
This large discrepancy highlights that the majority of futures contracts are settled financially (closed before expiration) rather than through physical delivery."