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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: petal who wrote (78865)	1/4/2026 8:42:06 AM
From: E_K_S	2 Recommendations Recommended By OlafB petal Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 79163

I was working at the Lockhead research lab located in the Stanford Research Park where Xerox had a facility in 1984. The innovation there was driving Silicon Valley. Our group was doing Google before Google developing the search software used by libraries and law firms to digitize and create the first electronic library. This was BEFORE the Internet but universities were connected w/ their own private network systems which we utilized to connect to our data servers. Our service was called DIALOG. The "Digital Library" Funding In the mid-90s, the U.S. government funded the Stanford Digital Library Project (SDLP). This was the specific research project that funded Larry Page and Sergey Brin's work. The SDLP was essentially the 90s attempt to modernize exactly what DIALOG had pioneered in the 60s and 70s—the creation of a "universal" electronic library. We know where Google ended up. DIalog was sold to McClatchy News papers which later went bankrupt in 2020. --------------------------------------------------- While both DIALOG and Google were built on groundbreaking Stanford-linked research, their divergent paths prove that even the most visionary technology is ultimately subject to the "fate" of market timing, as DIALOG’s specialized, fee-based model was eclipsed by the lucky arrival of a mass-market, ad-supported internet that turned Google into a global winner. PayPal is in the middle of a high-stakes transition from being the "default winner" of the early internet to a "legacy player" fighting for its life in the mobile-first era. The 2026 Snapshot: PayPal's Fight for Relevance The OpenAI Hail Mary: In late 2025, PayPal became the first payment partner for ChatGPT, allowing users to buy products directly within AI chats; this is their attempt to leapfrog the "mobile OS" disadvantage by winning the next era of "Agentic" shopping. The Monetization Shift: Knowing that transaction fees are a race to the bottom, PayPal launched the Ads Manager in early 2026, turning their 25 years of purchase data into a retail media network to compete with the likes of Amazon and Uber. Generational "Fate": While they remain the "winner" for older demographics (Millennials/Gen X), they are currently a "loser" among Gen Z, who overwhelmingly favor Apple Pay’s frictionless hardware integration over PayPal’s software-first approach. ------------------------------------------------------------------------- I sold all my PYPL and only will buy back in if (1) PYPL adapts to the AI challenge; and (2) price becomes compelling (but still could be a value trap). I am biased since I expect PYPL to miss the boat like DIALOG did w/ GOOGL. Stay tuned . .