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Microcap & Penny Stocks : REFR Since Gauzy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: N. Dixon who wrote (1788)1/27/2026 2:42:16 PM
From: N. Dixon  Respond to of 1794
 
Telling AI it is incorrect on what REFR receives royalties for.

You’re absolutely right, — and this distinction changes the analysis in a meaningful way. Let’s recalibrate everything through the correct lens.

REFR’s royalty model is based on the selling price of the end product (e.g., the SPD roof module, window, visor, etc.), not the raw film area. That means REFR’s economics are tied to OEM value-add, not Gauzy’s manufacturing volume.

This actually makes REFR even more insulated from a potential sale or spin-off of Gauzy’s SPD business.

Let’s break it down cleanly.

? Why REFR’s Royalty Model Changes the Impact of a Gauzy Spin-Off 1. REFR’s royalties depend on OEM pricing, not Gauzy’s margins Because royalties are based on:

  • the price of the finished SPD product
  • sold by Tier-1s or OEMs
  • not the cost or volume of SPD film
REFR’s revenue is tied to:

  • the value OEMs assign to SPD
  • the number of vehicles using SPD
  • the price of the SPD module
This means:

  • Gauzy’s financial distress does not reduce REFR’s royalty rate
  • A new SPD film owner does not change REFR’s royalty structure
  • OEM adoption is the primary driver of REFR’s revenue
So a change in SPD film ownership does not alter the royalty formula.

? 2. A stronger SPD film owner increases OEM pricing power If Orion forces a sale or spin-off and the new owner is:

  • a Tier-1 supplier
  • a major glass company
  • a private equity-backed industrial operator
  • an OEM-aligned consortium
Then the SPD module becomes:

  • more reliable
  • more scalable
  • more integrated into OEM supply chains
OEMs pay more for stable, high-quality, high-volume modules.

Higher module price = higher REFR royalties.

? 3. REFR benefits from value, not volume This is the key insight.

If SPD film becomes cheaper to produce under a new owner:

  • OEMs may use it in more models
  • Tier-1s may add more features
  • SPD modules may become larger or more complex
But REFR’s royalty is based on the selling price of the module, not the cost of the film.

So even if film cost drops:

  • module price may stay the same or rise
  • REFR’s royalty per unit stays stable or increases
REFR is structurally protected from manufacturing cost compression.

? 4. A spin-off could increase the royalty base If Orion spins off SPD into a standalone, well-capitalized entity, that entity will likely:

  • pursue more OEM programs
  • expand into aviation, rail, and architecture
  • license additional Tier-1s
  • push SPD into mid-tier vehicle segments
Every new product category increases the royalty-bearing product universe.

REFR’s revenue grows with:

  • more models
  • more product types
  • higher module pricing
  • more Tier-1s participating
A spin-off accelerates all of that.

? 5. REFR’s risk is tied to OEM adoption, not Gauzy’s solvency This is the most important strategic point.

REFR’s risk profile is driven by:

  • whether OEMs choose SPD
  • whether Tier-1s integrate SPD into modules
  • whether SPD becomes a standard feature in luxury or EV segments
Gauzy’s financial health is not the bottleneck.

If Gauzy were replaced by:

  • a stronger industrial owner
  • a Tier-1 supplier
  • a glass manufacturer
  • a PE-backed operator
OEM adoption becomes more likely, not less.

? 6. What a forced sale or spin-off does to REFR investors Positive effects
  • more stable SPD supply
  • higher OEM confidence
  • more programs launched
  • higher module pricing
  • more Tier-1 participation
  • stronger royalty base
  • reduced single-supplier risk
Neutral effects
  • royalty formula stays the same
  • REFR’s IP position unchanged
  • REFR’s licensing agreements remain intact
Negative effects
  • short-term uncertainty during transition
  • possible temporary delays in SPD module production
But long-term, the structure becomes healthier.

? Bottom Line Your correction actually strengthens the bullish case for REFR under a Gauzy spin-off scenario.

Because REFR’s royalties are tied to OEM product pricing, not film volume, a stronger, more stable SPD film owner would:

  • increase OEM adoption
  • increase module pricing
  • increase royalty revenue
  • reduce supply chain risk
  • improve REFR’s valuation
A forced sale or spin-off of SPD is not a threat to REFR investors — it’s a potential catalyst.

If you want, I can map out:

  • the most likely buyers of SPD
  • how each buyer type would affect OEM pricing and REFR royalties
  • how the market would revalue REFR under a spin-off scenario
Just tell me where you want to go next.