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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clint E. who wrote (15281)	2/26/1998 8:03:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68226

Hi Clint, did you attend NN's presentation? Impressions.. thanks, Jim

To: Clint E. who wrote (15281)	3/5/1998 11:19:00 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68226

Good morning Clint, It looks like INTC has rattled, but not scared the momentum investors as the indices are re-bounding off their lows as I type. In general I think we need a shake out if we are to go higher. As it is I am having problems justifying some of the prices on the big blue chip techstocks using my value model right now. With the pre-announcements started for earnings season and the fact that 401 K deposits stop in April(?) with the end of the US tax season, we should be in for a volatile few weeks. Here is a artilce on the European cellular service providers. It looks like they are using the same operating model as here in North America that is emphasizing subscriber growth over profits. techweb.com European Cellular Operators Face Revenue Challenge (03/03/98; 3:09 p.m. EST) By Andrew Craig, TechWeb If cellular phone use in Europe continues at its present high rate, operators there face a dwindling revenue stream, according to a report published Monday. More than 140 million Western Europeans, or 36 percent of the region's population, will be using cellular phones by 2003, said the report by researcher Analysys, based in Cambridge, England. In 1997, there were about 50 million cell phone users in Western Europe. But the major growth driver is falling prices, which could have a negative impact on cellular operators' revenue per user. The growth forecasts assume the current 21 percent annual growth rate will be sustained through 2003, said the report, titled European Cellular Market Forecasts. In Eastern Europe, where the market opportunity is constrained by the low per-capita income, cellular phone penetration is expected to reach 6 percent by 2003, or 10 million subscribers. There are two main challenges facing cellular operators, said Paul Knott, a senior consultant at Analysys. The first is building a customer base and ensuring that targeted revenue levels per subscriber are met; the second is subscriber churn, or the rate at which subscribers cancel the service. Churn can make financial forecasts difficult for a company, Knott said. Many operators are using mass-marketing techniques, such as prepaid calling card services, to target customers more effectively, Knott said. However, subscriber churn and falling revenue per customer "will cause operators to be cautious about price reductions," he added. Business cell phone use in Western Europe will be the largest generator of revenue over the next five years, accounting for more than 75 percent of the $23 billion market by 2003, the report said. However, by 2003, the number of subscribers will be divided about equally between business and non-business users. There are now 5 million more business subscribers than non-business subscribers in the region.