Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (70576)

2/7/2026 5:08:25 PM

From: Johnny Canuck

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 70703

Grok Question:
set up a "Watchlist Alert" for the specific price and breadth levels that would trigger the next Re-entry signal?

Answer:

To set up a high-precision watchlist for the next Bull Re-entry, we must look at the current state of the 2026 AI market. As of early February 2026, the semiconductor sector is coming off a "Buying Climax" (January 29, 2026), where SMH reached an all-time high of $420.60.

Since then, the index has entered a healthy consolidation phase. The 50-day moving average—our key support zone—has climbed significantly due to the vertical price action in January.

Current Market Context (Feb 7, 2026)

Current SMH Price: ~$401.65 (as of Feb 6 close).
Current 50-Day SMA: ~$374.37.
BPSOX Breadth: Currently cooling from the January extreme (>85%) but still likely in the 60-70% range.

Watchlist Alert: The "Bull Re-entry" TriggerSet these specific alerts in your trading platform (e.g., TradingView, ThinkorSwim) to catch the next high-probability bounce.

Trigger Component	Condition	Current Target Level	Strategic Reasoning
Price Support	SMH = $375.00	$374.37 (50d SMA)	This level acted as a major launchpad in late 2025.
Breadth Reset	$BPSOX = 55%	40% – 55% Zone	This resets the "sentiment clock" without breaking the trend.
Relative Low	RSI (14) < 45	40 – 45	Signals that the "overbought" condition has been fully worked off.
Volume Climax	Relative Vol > 1.5x	15M+ shares (SMH)	We want to see a "washout" on the 50-day average.

Action Plan for the Next Trade1. The Alert (Wait)Wait for the notification that SMH has touched $375. Do not buy the first touch blindly. We are looking for the BPSOX to have dropped significantly from its recent highs, indicating that the "froth" has left the secondary names (like ON Semi or Teradyne).

2. The Confirmation (Buy)Once price hits the target, look for a Hammer Candle or a strong green close back above the 20-day EMA.

Entry: Market order on the first green day after the $375 test.
Stop-Loss: $351.00 (Just below the 100-day moving average).
Profit Target: $440.00 (A new extension of the AI-supercycle trend).

3. The "Fail-Safe"If the price breaks $350 on heavy volume, the "Bull Re-entry" has failed, and we likely have a deeper cyclical correction ahead. In that scenario, we cancel all buy orders and wait for the Primary Entry (< 20% Breadth) signal, which would likely occur near $310.

Would you like me to identify which specific chip stocks (like NVIDIA or AMD) currently have the best technical setup to lead the charge when this re-entry triggers?