Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (95889)	2/7/2026 11:39:41 PM
From: Return to Sender	1 Recommendation Recommended By Kirk © Respond to of 95909

Using BPNDX and BPSOX together works best. The SOX is much more volatile than the Nasdaq100. The baseline for BPNDX is over 70% PnF Buy Signals is overbought but early on in a new Bull Market it is common for there to be well in excess of 80 PnF Buy signals on the NDX. As a Bull Market matures these numbers usually fall leading to lower highs until we see an ultimate top leading to a real Bear Market. 20 Year Chart of the BPNDX: As for the SOX. I have seen it as high as 100%, or all 30 PnF Buy signals. On the sell side BPSOX was only 2 PnF Buy Signals on 11/21/25. And 6 on last Thursday! Well under the 30% buy signal of 9. Was Friday the start of another big rub higher for the SOX? Maybe, it certainly a good start. But the market is getting longer in the tooth. Probably more volatility ahead? I honestly don't know. RtS

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (95889)

2/8/2026 12:11:59 AM

From: Return to Sender

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95909

In the event of a Bear Market that is when the 80% or 90% Upside Days become important because they will tell you exactly when the market has bottomed. Here is the data that I uncovered:

90% Upside Days on the NYSE are few and far in between. Seeing Two 80% Upside Days for the NYSE in close succession are just as good to help herald in the end of a Bear Market and the start of the next bull market.

No Stock market bottom is the same but there are some things they have in common. I would love to see a 90% Upside Day. This recent 80% Upside day was glorious. But it is not enough. We now need to see another one in the next week or so. But maybe not since all we have seen thus far is a market correction unless you are invested in software stocks, metals or Bitcoin. They have seen bear markets.

In April of last year we bottomed after Liberation Day. But that was only after BPNDX fell to 6 PnF Buy Signals. BPSOX was actually zero. We had seen 80% Upside days in what looked like a good bottom in March. Uncertainty can derail any market at any time. But ultimately the market goes higher.

The bottom in 2020 had a brilliant better than 90% upside day. I shared the data here.

Message 32630165

Market Snapshot – MARCH 24, 2020

Dow	20704.97	+2112.98	(11.37%)
Nasdaq	7417.21	+557.18	(8.12%)
SP 500	2447.33	+209.93	(9.38%)
10-yr Note	-5/32	0.840

NYSE	Adv 2677	Dec 240	Vol 1.7 bln
Nasdaq	Adv 2831	Dec 460	Vol 4.3 bln

Not only did we have that kind of upside day but we got an 87% upside day just a few days later:

I am only going to share a couple other important bottoms because I feel they better represent the kind of market challenges we have now.

The Bottom in 2009 came on 3/10/2009 - Here is what I shared on the day the bottom formed:

Message 32630165

Ultimately we got this:

The Stock Market Bottom on Monday March 9, 2009

On March 10: Market breadth was positive. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers by over 13 to one on volume of nearly 2.19 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners by more than five to one on volume of 2.49 billion shares.Mar 10, 2009.

The 2002 Stock Market Bottom was much tougher to call because we got 80% Upside Days instead of the exceptionally rare 90% Upside Day:

recessionalert.com

It was also a W bottom which gave investors plenty of time to get in from October of 2002 to March of 2003. Finally my favorite market sector is this the semiconductor sector. In March of 2003 semiconductors were leading the market higher.

RtS