Market Snapshot
| Dow | 50120.19 | -66.74 | (-0.13%) | | Nasdaq | 23066.49 | -36.01 | (-0.16%) | | SP 500 | 6941.46 | -0.34 | (0.00%) | | 10-yr Note |
|
|
|
| | NYSE | Adv 1466 | Dec 1265 | Vol 1.39 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1826 | Dec 2935 | Vol 10.01 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy, Industrials, Materials, Consumer Staples, Information Technology, Health Care, Utilities, Information Technology |
| | Weak: Communication Services, Financials, Consumer Discretionary |
Moving the Market
--Solid January Employment Situation Report shows 130K payrolls added (Briefing.com consensus 68K)
--Stocks reversing strong start
--Software and mega-caps under pressure
|
Market drifts sideways after January jobs report prompts early choppiness
11-Feb-26 16:30 ET
Dow -66.74 at 50120.19, Nasdaq -36.01 at 23066.49, S&P -0.34 at 6941.46
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and DJIA (-0.1%) traded in a tight range near their flatlines for the bulk of the session after some notable swings early on. The modest weakness snaps a three-day streak of record highs for the DJIA.
Stocks opened to solid gains following this morning's release of the January Employment Situation Report, which showed 130K payrolls added in January (Briefing.com consensus 68K). While the headline figure generated some positive buzz around the U.S. growth outlook, it also tempered the market's expectations for its next rate cut from the Fed. The probability of at least a 25-basis point rate cut at the June 17 FOMC meeting now stands at around 60%, down from just over 75% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
After retreating from the opening highs, stocks largely drifted sideways. True to 2026 form, strength in the broader market had a positive tilt, with select cyclical and defensive sectors posting solid gains, while mega-caps faced weakness.
Amazon (AMZN 204.20, -2.70, -1.31%) and Alphabet (GOOG 311.24, -7.39, -2.32%) continued to face pressure after their earnings releases last week, weighing on the communication services (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) sectors.
The information technology sector (+0.3%) had the bumpiest morning but managed to close modestly higher as the broader AI infrastructure landscape had a solid day. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+2.3%) was lifted by a sharp rebound in memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 599.34, +57.70, +10.65%) and Micron (MU 410.34, +37.09, +9.94%) after some weakness yesterday.
Software stocks, on the other hand, faced renewed pressure after some relief in the previous session. The iShares GS Software ETF (IGV) finished 2.6% lower, and Microsoft (MSFT 404.37, -8.90, -2.15%) was once again a mega-cap laggard.
Earnings also played a role in today's action, with several sectors' best and worst performing components being results of this morning's releases.
Smurfit Westrock plc (SW 50.28, +4.53, +9.90%) contributed to a solid day for the materials sector (+1.3%), while Generac (GNRC 214.99, +32.69, +17.93%) was the best-performing S&P 500 name, helping the industrials sector (+0.5%) notch a gain.
Meanwhile, Robinhood Markets (HOOD 78.07, -7.53, -8.80%) was one of the worst-performing S&P 500 names after missing revenue expectations. The financials sector (-1.5%) was a laggard as major banking and financial services stocks saw a continuation of yesterday's weakness.
Elsewhere, the energy sector (+2.6%) finished as the best-performing S&P 500 sector as heightening geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran contributed to crude oil futures settling today's session $0.59 higher (+0.9%) at $64.60 per barrel.
The consumer staples sector (+1.5%) also logged a nice gain on broad strength throughout the sector as it rebounded from yesterday's weakness that followed a flat retail sales report for December.
Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.2%) were never able to reclaim their opening gains.
Overall, the session underscored the market's familiar push-and-pull between resilient breadth and ongoing mega-cap pressure, leaving the major averages little changed by the close. With rate-cut expectations recalibrating and earnings continuing to drive sharp single-stock moves, the market proceeded cautiously in anticipation of its next catalysts.
U.S. Treasuries retreated on Wednesday with the short end leading the move, though the entire complex spent the day in a steady rally off lows that were reached in immediate reaction to a stellar jobs report for January (130,000; Briefing.com consensus 68,000). The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.51%, and the 10-year note yield settled up three basis points to 4.17%.
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.4% YTD
- Russell 2000: +7.6% YTD
- DJIA: +4.3% YTD
- S&P 500: +1.4% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite: -0.8% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -0.3%; Prior -8.9%
- January Nonfarm Payrolls 130K (Briefing.com consensus 68K); Prior was revised to 48K from 50K, January Nonfarm Private Payrolls 172K (Briefing.com consensus 60K); Prior was revised to 64K from 37K, January Unemployment Rate 4.3% (Briefing.com consensus 4.4%); Prior 4.4%, January Average Hourly Earnings 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.1% from 0.3%, January Average Workweek 34.3 (Briefing.com consensus 34.2); Prior 34.2
- The key takeaway from the report is that it is a positive sign for the U.S. growth outlook, yet it may come with the cost of foregoing an additional rate cut by the Fed, at least in the near future.
- The Treasury's budget deficit was $94.6 billion in January (Briefing.com consensus: -$190.0B), which was much narrower than expected and a notable improvement from the same period a year ago when it was $128.6 billion. Receipts totaled $559.9 billion, while outlays summed to $654.6 billion.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it shows the benefits of collecting customs duties as a means of reducing the deficit. At the same time, it also reflects the onerous interest costs stemming from the high amount of debt issuance needed to fund government operations. Weekly crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels after decreasing by 3.46 million barrels a week ago.
Major averages little changed ahead of more earnings
11-Feb-26 15:30 ET
Dow -66.30 at 50120.63, Nasdaq -43.12 at 23059.38, S&P -0.98 at 6940.82
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain little changed from previous levels with just half an hour left in today's session.
Investors have another sizable batch of earnings reports to look forward to after the close today, including that of Cisco (CSCO 85.81, -0.46, -0.53%).
Guidance is the key driver for the stock, as the company has built credibility through consistent execution and steady EPS beats. Sentiment hinges on whether AI infrastructure momentum remains strong enough to offset broader enterprise spending variability. Investors will watch closely for incremental upside to FY26 AI revenue expectations and any signs that hyperscaler demand is accelerating or normalizing. With shares having rallied into the print and AI names seeing some recent rotation, Cisco may need to deliver both solid results and confident forward commentary to sustain momentum.
Additionally, McDonald's (MCD 323.76, -2.22, -0.68%) is set to report its earnings. While MCD's rare EPS miss in Q3 injected some caution, investors largely focused on the encouraging comp trajectory and traffic share gains in major markets. Sentiment now hinges on whether that momentum carried into Q4 and whether management's tone on the consumer stabilizes or deteriorates further. The bifurcated spending backdrop presents both risk and opportunity, with value offerings critical to defending traffic among lower-income consumers. With shares near the upper end of their recent range, upside likely requires clear evidence of sustained comp strength and confident 2026 commentary, while any stumble in traffic or margins could quickly pressure the stock.
Oil prices higher amid geopolitical tensions
11-Feb-26 15:00 ET
Dow -39.75 at 50147.18, Nasdaq -1.87 at 23100.63, S&P +8.30 at 6950.10
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (-0.1%) remain in close proximity to their flat lines entering the final hour of the midweek session.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is preparing a second aircraft carrier to deploy to the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran.
Oil prices were firmer today amid the geopolitical uncertainty, with crude oil futures settling today's session $0.59 higher (+0.9%) at $64.60 per barrel. The energy sector (+2.5%) is the top-performing S&P 500 sector today after posting a slight loss yesterday.
S&P 500 Edges Higher as January U.S. Budget Deficit Narrows Sharply on Strong Revenue Growth
11-Feb-26 14:30 ET
Dow -14.57 at 50172.36, Nasdaq +32.18 at 23134.68, S&P +14.67 at 6956.47
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.21%) is in first place following the release of the Treasury's January budget from the bottom of the hour.
The Treasury Budget for December showed a deficit of $94.6 billion compared to a deficit of $128.6 billion in the same period a year ago.
The December deficit resulted from outlays ($654.6 billion) exceeding receipts ($559.9 billion). The Treasury Budget data are not seasonally adjusted so the January deficit cannot be compared to the December deficit of $144.8 bln.
Overall, January's U.S. budget deficit narrowed sharply as revenue growth, led by a surge in customs duties from Trump-era tariffs, outpaced modest increases in spending, even as receipts and outlays hit record levels for the month. While lower interest costs provided a one-time boost, year-to-date debt interest remains at a record high, showing that improved near-term deficit trends do not resolve longer-term fiscal pressures.
Gold Surges to Record High as Rate-Cut Bets and Geopolitical Risks Lift Safe-Haven Appeal
11-Feb-26 14:00 ET
Dow -117.35 at 50069.58, Nasdaq +10.36 at 23112.86, S&P +8.48 at 6950.28
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.04%) is in second place on Wednesday afternoon, up about 10 points.
Gold futures settled $67.50 higher (+1.3%) at $5,098.50/oz, as falling Treasury yields and a softer U.S. dollar revived safe-haven demand and reinforced expectations that the Fed could cut rates later this year. The move was further underpinned by ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and steady central-bank buying, keeping gold bid ahead of key U.S. inflation and labor data.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down about -0.1% to $96.75.
Robinhood Markets Takes an Arrow on Q4 Revenue Miss Amid Crypto Weakness (HOOD)
Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is sharply lower after reporting its Q4 results last night. The company delivered a modest EPS beat, but revenue fell short of expectations at $1.28 bln (+27% yr/yr). HOOD also appointed Shiv Verma as CFO and outlined its 2026 expense plan aimed at accelerating product velocity, sustaining strong net deposit growth, and driving another year of profitable expansion.
- Total platform assets increased 68% yr/yr to $324 bln, with Q4 net deposits of $15.9 bln (a 19% annualized growth rate vs. Q3 ending assets) marking the 8th straight quarter above $10 bln, though that decelerated from Q3's 29% annualized rate.
- Transaction-based revenues increased 15% yr/yr to $776 mln, driven by other transaction revenue of $147 mln (+300% yr/yr), options revenue of $314 mln (+41%), and equities revenue of $94 mln (+54%).
- This was partially offset by crypto, where revenue fell 38% yr/yr to $221 mln as Robinhood app crypto notional volumes dropped 52% yr/yr to $34 bln.
- Prediction Markets continue to stand out, with volumes more than doubling in Q4. The business reached a $300 mln+ run-rate on 12 bln+ contracts traded in 2025 (its first full year), and momentum has continued with 4 bln+ traded in early 2026.
- Robinhood Gold subscribers rose 58% yr/yr to a record 4.2 mln, while ARPU increased 16% yr/yr to $191, as customers continue to adopt premium features and expand usage across new offerings.
- HOOD guided $2.6-2.725 bln in adj. OpEx for FY26, with more than half aimed at new and scaling businesses like Gold Card, Banking, Predictions, Tokenization, and Robinhood Ventures.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
HOOD continues to show strong engagement and growth, highlighted by its 8th straight quarter with net deposits above $10 bln. That said, the quarter was not spotless. The revenue miss stands out and largely reflects a sharp step down in crypto revenue, which is likely weighing on sentiment amid the ongoing volatility in crypto markets. Net deposit growth also decelerated versus Q3, which may raise questions about sustaining its recent pace. That said, management sounded upbeat on newer growth drivers, especially Prediction Markets, which it believes is at the beginning of a multi-year supercycle. Early 2026 trends were also solid, with January equities volume up 50%+ yr/yr and options up 20%, and February daily volumes tracking above January so far. Overall, the longer term drivers and continued investment reinforce the story, but weaker crypto activity and a slower deposit pace are clouding the near-term setup.
Shopify reverses lower as strong GMV growth, AI momentum stymied by valuation pressures (SHOP)
Shopify (SHOP) is reversing sharply lower following its 4Q25 earnings report, as profit-taking and valuation concerns overshadowed an otherwise strong quarter and upbeat 1Q26 outlook. After initially rallying on clear top-line beats and guidance calling for low-thirties percent revenue growth in Q1, shares turned decisively negative, likely pressured by a modest adjusted EPS miss and elevated operating expenses. The pullback comes after the stock had surged roughly 13% this week ahead of the print and reflects its lofty 68x forward P/E, which leaves little room for imperfection. Notably, management’s tone on the call remained confident, suggesting the selloff appears more valuation and positioning driven than fundamentally based.
- GMV jumped 31% yr/yr to $123.8 bln (first quarter above $100 bln), fueled by a record holiday season and strength across apparel, beauty, home, and food verticals.
- Revenue climbed 31% to a record quarterly high (first quarter above $3 bln), capping full-year 2025 revenue growth of 30% to $11.6 bln, accelerating from 2024 levels.
- Adjusted EPS of $0.48 appeared to miss expectations, as operating expenses rose to $1.0 bln (29% of revenue), reflecting continued investments in R&D, AI initiatives (Sidekick, UCP), and international marketing.
- Merchant Solutions revenue grew 35%, with Shopify Payments penetration rising to 68% of GMV, underscoring deeper ecosystem monetization.
- International momentum remained robust, with European GMV up 45% (35% constant currency) and nearly half of incremental GMV coming from outside North America.
- B2B GMV surged 84% in Q4 and 96% for the full year, while offline GMV increased 29%, highlighting multi-channel expansion.
- 1Q26 guidance calls for revenue growth in the low 30% range and gross profit dollar growth in the high 20s, comfortably ahead of expectations, although free cash flow margin is expected in the low-to-mid teens due to seasonality and a higher effective tax rate.
- The Board authorized a new $2 bln share repurchase program, reinforcing confidence in long-term cash generation.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
SHOP’s Q4 results reinforce its positioning as a durable, globally scaled commerce platform entering the AI era with momentum. GMV acceleration to 31% growth, rising payments penetration, explosive B2B expansion, and early traction in AI-driven commerce tools such as Sidekick, Catalog, and the Universal Commerce Protocol illustrate a company broadening both its merchant base and monetization levers. Importantly, management pushed back on concerns that AI agents could bypass SHOP’s checkout, emphasizing that monetization economics remain intact as transactions continue to flow through Shopify Payments infrastructure That said, the combination of a slight EPS shortfall, elevated operating investment, seasonal free cash flow guidance, and a premium valuation likely triggered profit-taking after a strong pre-earnings run. Longer term, however, SHOP appears firmly positioned to compound GMV and revenue at scale, particularly as international, B2B, and AI-powered commerce initiatives gain further traction.
Zillow Stumbles After Q4, Though Mortgage and Rentals Growth Keep the Doors Open (ZG)
Zillow (ZG -18%) is trading sharply lower after the online real estate company missed slightly on adjusted EPS. Revenue rose a healthy 18.1% yr/yr to $654 mln, landing at the higher end of prior guidance of $645--655 mln. However, after topping guidance in Q3, results were viewed as a modest disappointment. Adjusted EBITDA grew 33% yr/yr to $149 mln, in line with prior guidance of $145--155 mln, but again did not replicate the upside surprise delivered in Q3. The biggest bright spot was Q1 revenue guidance of $700--710 mln, well above analyst expectations and signaling optimism for a solid spring selling season.
- For Sale segment revenue grew 11% yr/yr to $475 mln, exceeding prior guidance of high single-digit growth. Residential revenue increased 8% yr/yr to $418 mln, benefiting from growth in agent and software offerings as well as strength in the New Construction marketplace. Mortgages revenue jumped 39% yr/yr to $57 mln, well above prior guidance of +20%, driven by a 67% surge in purchase loan origination volume to $1.5 bln.
- Rentals segment revenue climbed 45% yr/yr to $168 mln, primarily fueled by 63% growth in multifamily revenue, although this came in slightly below guidance of "more than 45%" growth.
- Zillow continues to focus on creating a more connected experience across search, touring, financing, and agent collaboration. The company's strategy centers on reducing friction and uncertainty by enabling all participants in a transaction to work together more efficiently.
- Looking ahead to FY26, Zillow expects mid-teens revenue growth overall. Within Rentals, the company forecasts approximately 30% revenue growth, following 39% growth in 2025 and 27% growth in 2024, reflecting continued confidence in the segment despite moderating expansion.
- Management expects the For Sale environment to continue "bouncing along the bottom," but sees improving affordability as a reason for cautious optimism. The share of median household income required to purchase a newly bought home declined to 32% in December, down from a peak of 38% in 2023. Further improvement in affordability could help support a broader housing recovery over time.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While Zillow's Q4 results were solid, the lack of upside relative to guidance after a strong Q3 print likely explains the muted reaction. Encouragingly, Q1 revenue guidance points to accelerating momentum heading into the key spring selling season, and Mortgage growth remains a standout contributor. Rentals continues to deliver robust expansion, though growth is expected to moderate in FY26 as the segment gets larger. We see Zillow as executing well operationally, but near-term performance remains tethered to housing market conditions. Sustained improvement in affordability and transaction volumes will be critical to unlocking further upside.
Lyft veers off course as disappointing Q1 outlook ignites steep selloff (LYFT)
Lyft (LYFT) is diving lower following its 4Q25 earnings report, as a disappointing bottom-line outlook for 1Q26 overshadowed a solid finish to the fiscal year. While LYFT delivered Gross Bookings and Adjusted EBITDA at the high end of its previous guidance, the company notably did not provide an EPS figure, muddying the overall results for investors. Despite achieving record active ridership and a strong international push, the stock is under heavy pressure as management’s near-term profitability projections fell short of Wall Street's expectations.
- Gross Bookings grew 19% to $5.1 bln, while Adjusted EBITDA rose 37% to $154.1 mln, both hitting the high end of guidance ranges.
- Active Riders increased 18% to 29.2 mln, supported by better ETAs and a 50% surge in high-margin modes.
- The Freenow acquisition expanded LYFT into Europe, targeting a €1 bln exit rate as it enters 2026.
- DoorDash (DASH) remains the most successful link to date, while the United Airlines (UAL) partnership has already generated 115 mln miles for riders.
- A hybrid network approach for AVs aims for a 20% cost reduction per mile by 2030 through partners like Google's (GOOG/GOOGL) Waymo.
- Q1 Guidance was projected at EBITDA of $120–$140 mln, missing the $140 mln consensus, despite Gross Bookings growth of 17–20%.
- In California, LYFT expects a demand pickup in 2H26 as riders gradually adjust to lower prices from insurance reforms.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
LYFT’s 4Q25 results highlight a company gaining operational momentum that is currently being masked by a cautious near-term outlook. The record 18% growth in active riders and deep partnership integration with DASH and UAL suggest the "customer-obsessed" strategy is working to capture market share. However, the Q1 EBITDA guidance miss is fueling concerns about persistent margin pressure and the cost of maintaining competitive pricing. In the immediate term, LYFT must navigate a complex regulatory and competitive environment in California while proving it can translate volume growth into consistent GAAP profitability. Until the company provides clearer bottom-line metrics and meets margin expansion targets, the stock may continue to struggle against the disappointing tag of its 2026 guidance.
|
