To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (70687 ) 2/12/2026 2:10:38 AM From: Johnny Canuck Respond to Gemini saidEconomic Data & Market Volatility Employment Shifts: The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3% , and non-farm payrolls came in at 130k (double the estimate) [ 01:03 ]. However, the speaker highlights that nearly a million jobs have been quietly revised downward in recent months [ 02:04 ].Retail Weakness: Spending at restaurants and bars is softening, with retail sales decelerating below 2% [ 02:14 ]. This trend often precedes further cooling in January and February data [ 02:32 ].Wage Trends: Average hourly earnings are trending down toward 2018–2019 levels [ 03:12 ], though consumer prices remain high despite lower labor costs in some sectors [ 03:36 ].Why the S&P 500 is "Stuck" Absolute Return Dispersion: The market is seeing a rare level of "dispersion" where individual stocks are making massive moves, but the index itself remains flat [ 04:06 ]. This specific pattern has only been seen during the 2000 Dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis [ 04:23 ].Sector Rotation: Money is rotating into "defensive" plays like Healthcare (XLV) , Utilities, and Consumer Staples (Walmart), which don't have enough weight to move the index significantly [ 05:29 ].The "Coiling" Effect: The S&P 500 is tightening and likely to make a major move soon. The speaker believes it could hit a new all-time high if semiconductors, particularly Nvidia , break through current resistance levels [ 05:07 ].Sector & Stock Analysis Semiconductors: This sector remains the primary engine. Stocks like ARM (up 30% in 5 days) and Taiwan Semi are showing extreme strength [ 08:25 ].Software (IGB): Software stocks are facing immense pressure. Even companies with strong earnings, like Shopify , saw 25% drops after opening [ 09:28 ].Crypto & Fintech: Bitcoin is consolidating near $59,000 , which is weighing on stocks like Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase [ 11:47 ]. The speaker notes that 37% of Robinhood’s revenue is tied to crypto, making it vulnerable to volume drops [ 11:59 ].What to Watch Next Key Earnings: Upcoming reports from Coinbase, Pinterest, Arista, Rivian, DraftKings, and Applied Materials will be critical [ 12:45 ].Economic Indicators: Existing home sales and mortgage data are expected tomorrow, though they may not move the needle as much as the employment data [ 13:01 ].youtube.com
