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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hector who wrote (20375)	2/26/1998 9:34:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Respond to of 42771

Novell's Q1 report --- They finally sent me the numbers Product line revenue Q4 Q1 Net 3 27,952,000 22,236,000 Net 4 128,976,000 125,822,000 The NOS is 58.7% of revenue. Slightly up from 58.3%. Groupwise & Managewise flat at 35,452,000 some 14.1%. Education & Service declined 38,935,000 28,975,000 but seemed a little high in Q4 and is only a couple mil under the trailing four quarter average. Unix Royalites are down. 9,731,000 7,127,000 The real area of interest is Infrastructure Products which includes I would assume both NDS, SAA, and Bordermanager. 27,888,000 32,400,000 Bordermanager was out for the whole Quarter. This is the only area of revenue growth reported and it amounts to 5 million dollars. Conclusions: They have stopped channel stuffing so we are looking at honest numbers. The fudge factor being irrelevant at .04 a share. I mean what difference does it make .02 or .04---revenues are FLAT. They have taken a hit already from Asia. They are doing better with direct licensing deals. They are trying to make their existing clients happy and focusing on their needs. This means they are trying to find the right new product using their existing customer base as the test bed. Schmidt has unified the product line marketing. Basically they are marking time until Netware 5.0. We have not seen any sudden surprises (Scott LEmon not withstanding) in terms of revenue growth from the non-core products. Only NDS on NT is an unknown. oops the THUD of FUD. Given a lack of a hot product they must have considered folding some of these products into their core NOS. There is no evidence of Novonyx sales yet, Internet leadership, or NDS as a standard. They do not plan any significant changes in their expense models and there will be no more saving from bodies being sacrificed (only 200 people left in this quarter.) Personally from what I read it must be a daily struggle at Novell to maintain revenue. They need a partner with more marketing clout. They are fighting a company 200 times bigger than them. What Frankenberg should have been allowed to do several years ago, will be done because there isn't any choice by Schmidt. Unfortunately we have to wait until the Summer since Schmidt's main mission has been and continues to be to put Novell into the mainstream of computing again..

To: Hector who wrote (20375)	2/27/1998 9:37:00 AM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

David and Paul, I guess if you've been in the markets successfully for 30 years you're just too dumb to get it today. Buy stocks that are splitting and get rich. Studies show that they are a great investment. Interesting that prior to the start of this bull leg in 1994 the studies showed the opposite. Investors are just smarter today! The US market is soaring because of low inflation, strong growth, the best companies in the world, low interest rates.............. Yada yada yada. I wonder if that explains why European markets are soaring much the same as here? But don't they have high interest rates, double digit unemployment, union control over companies, extreme socialistic economies? I guess that's bull market material too. Does it explain how Asian markets soared on what turned out to be weak fundamentals? Weren't we being told how wonderful things were there, prior to and as the collapse began? Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm Is it possible this is all explained by all the money that's being created by Central Banks around the world. And by the overconfidence that's created by an economy being boosted by a Fed that only knows one direction. Up. Didn't they used to slow growth occasionally to keep things from overheating? Deals being done that didn't make sense? Investments being made that had little economic benefit? Didn't the government used to slow spending during good times so they could boost it during slow times? I guess none of that matters because investors are smarter today. Anyway, we'll know when it ends, right? Don't they ring a bell? Abby Joseph Cohen, Lou Rukeyser, and Joe Battapaglia will warn us, right? And we're all in for the long term and we'll hold during another of those horrible 11% crashes anyway, right? Because we're smarter today, right? I don't really know when this ends, no one does. But I bet when it does end there aren't going to be too many who recognize it. And fewer still who believe, or even understand it. That's what this is really all about. Take away as much money as possible, from as many people as possible. Just like always. NOVL may be going up for good now. Hard to say. I'm going to bet that if no insider buying shows up soon that this is just another short lived rally. Wouldn't they be the first to know things were getting betting? Joe Kernan on CNBC was reeeeeally hyping it all day yesterday, besides Bob Pisani. Dwight