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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (13036)	2/26/1998 9:56:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

Big Dog, I understand you have said here many times that you see no reduction in companies looking for offshore rigs. Let me put it on a different spin and I'd like to hear your comment. This is in no way personal. Could it be that due to the nature of your profession your objectivity is slanted? You told us you just went back to work as a rig broker. If I understand this right it means you are one of the eight brokers in the world that make buying/selling rig deal happen. Isn't it true then that the majority of customers/clients that you come into contact with in your business are those who are looking for rigs. At the same token, there could be many people who have decided not to look for rigs now as a result of various reasons (declining oil price, future e&p cut fear, etc.) but you don't come across because they don't need you. Therefore, your impression is that the offshore rig demand is still high in this industry. What is your own view on this? As to tomorrow and the next week, I'm sure the topics of consolidation, merger, economy of scale, link-up, etc. are going to abundant. I just love Joe Kernen's french pronounciation of CXIPY. The oil traders have began to discount the ability of OPEC to pull together (read Bloomberg energy). Tomorrow could be interesting, being Friday and all.

To: Big Dog who wrote (13036)	2/27/1998 8:05:00 AM
From: SJS	Respond to of 95453

If you're that bullish over the ST, your selling calls strategy might work, too. However (as you know) there a limit to your upside with selling calls. Here's why I don't think that's a real factor, though. If FGII makes it to 35 in 3 weeks or sooner, that's about a 12% move in 3 weeks (or less) from the current level of 31.25. For this stock, that's very doable, and three weeks is a lot of time to make 3 3/4 points. However, it would take alot of mo-mo to get it there and keep it there for the "expiration" event. They may push it over, but I think they could bring it back down to 35, or just under/over. One trigger that certainly could add a hard push up would be an emergency OPEC meeting, which Bloomberg even mentioned this morning on the news as "very possible". So...I think the trade might be to sell calls and take in additional cash (but with less downside protection than buying puts) and extent your overall gain %. As well the "out of the money" 35 calls will decay nicely, especially over the weekends!! Take that free "non-trading" weekend time and put it in your pocket!! Let me know how you eventually play it, if at all. PS: RGinPG mentioned that FGII is 1-2 days away from it's move up, given a certain set of circumstances. You might want to factor that in, if you like that particular analysis. exchange2000.com