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Technology Stocks : CellularVision (CVUS): 2-way LMDS wireless cable. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (1339)	2/27/1998 8:30:00 AM
From: James Fink	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2063

Hiram, Is high-speed data over cellular and PCS phones exploitable by LMDS or is it a competitive threat to LMDS? See below: Hooked on (data) speed New generation of wireless devices promises to leave today's fastest PC modems eating their dust By David Bowermaster MSNBC Feb. 26 - Next year, telecom equipment makers like Qualcomm, Nokia and Ericsson will begin producing network hardware that will enable providers of personal communications services, or PCS, to send e-mail and other data to wireless phones at rates roughly twice as fast as today's zippiest PC modems. Even swifter speeds are just around the corner. But does a person really need all that speed? ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿTHE WIRELESS WORLD'S speed fixation is an outgrowth of the same fascination with interactivity that is prompting cable TV and phone companies to churn out high-bandwidth Web surfing technologies such as cable modems and digital subscriber line, or DSL. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿEach of these industries believe super-fast data delivery is going to grow into a huge business, and they all want a slice. They also greatly fear losing their current customers by failing to keep pace. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ"Speed is a fundamental competitive requirement," Jyrki Salo, vice-president in charge of the Americas for Nokia, told the unplugged legions gathered this week at the Wireless `98 trade show in Atlanta. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ"Speed is king," agreed Dan Hesse, president of AT&T Wireless. Speed is no big deal if all you want to do is make voice calls on your wireless phone. But the great promise of the PCS networks going up all over the country is their ability to send data such as e-mail, stock quotes and sports scores to the small screens built into new wireless phones. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿRight now most PCS networks can send data at rates of only 14.4 kilobytes per second, far slower than the 56kbps pace of today's PC modems. And sitting around waiting for data to appear on your phone is no less annoying than waiting for it to show up on your home computer. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ"Wireless data up until now has asked for incredibly long user patience," concedes Geoff Parkins, global vice-president of telecommunications for IBM. The lag time has stunted the growth of wireless data. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿRemedies are in the works. Later this year Nokia will introduce equipment that can jack speeds up to 64kbps, Salo says. In 1999 rates will pick up to around 115 kbps. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿIn three to five years, Nokia and a host of others will unveil so-called "third generation" equipment that will pump data across PCS networks at a head-snapping 2 mbps, or nearly 50 times today's top modem speeds. That will put wireless on an even playing field with cable modems and DSL. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿSuch speeds will greatly expand the functionality of wireless phones. Not only will they become efficient micro Web browsers, they will also be useful as external, wireless modems for laptops. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿA big plus for wireless carriers is they will be able to improve speeds by simply upgrading equipment at cell towers, rather than refurbishing millions of miles of underground cable or copper wires. (It's not clear whether each new leap in capacity will make obsolete the previous generation of consumer PCS phones and other devices.). ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ"Over time we'll be offering more and more capabilities and be using the same infrastructure largely used for voice. Wireless then turns out to be exceedingly convenient," says Dr. Irwin Jacobs, chairman and chief executive of Qualcomm, which makes network infrastructure as well as a popular line of wireless phones. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿJacobs, a well-respected voice in the industry and the architect of one of three leading PCS network architectures, says he can foresee a time when even home computer users will go online sans wire. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿYet he cautions that most wireless consumers are not going to need, or want to pay for, mega-speeds. "Many of the applications that we see currently used" - particularly e-mail - "will be handled very well at 100 kbps," says Jacobs. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿCarriers are thus likely to give customers a range of pricing options for wireless data, with higher prices for higher speeds. Alternatively, Jacobs says carriers may switch to "packet-based" data pricing, where users are charged by the amount of digital information they download. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿ PHONE OF THE FUTURE? ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿThe most compelling example of what consumers will be able to do with all of that wireless speed is the Cosm phone that Sony unveiled in Atlanta. Still only a "concept" device, the Cosm phone incorporates some of the most exciting digital technology in a single device. Sony's D-Wave Cosm communicator could be a sign of things to come with high-speed wireless data. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿAlong with the standard functions of a PCS phone, the Cosm comes with a full-color screen, roughly 2 inches by 3 inches., that can download Web images. Filtering software designed by Sony, called WebSPF, will scrunch the components of any Web page down to fit on the Cosm screen. By incorporating location information sent from the nearest PCS tower, the Cosm will be able to call up traffic maps tailored to where you are as well as listings of restaurants and movies within a few miles. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿYou can also take photos with an optional digital camera, and annotate comments with a voice recorder. All of that information can then be zapped off to relatives and friends via e-mail. ÿ ÿ ÿ ÿSony says the phone will be able to provide a "satisfying experience" at 14.4 kpbs, but clearly it is a machine designed with much higher speed limits in mind.

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (1339)	2/27/1998 9:41:00 AM
From: WTC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

Hiram, James, Interesting thoughts on targeting BTAs based on anticipated reality of buildout complexity and cost, and eventual expectations of LOS. I think rain rate is a material issue for infrastructure cost in a business targeted build -- I need a lot more cells in Miami, Atlanta or New Orleans for 99.9% link availablity than I can get away with in the northeast or the southwest -- halve the rain-limited node radius and you have quadrupled the baseline node count (yes, with overlap to enhance LOS, it's more complicated than that, but the impact is significant in my cost analysis, especially in the early years before customer premises equipment costs overtake and swamp out infrastructure costs.) If I was aiming for a residential built for internet access, I might figure 99.2% link availability was plenty good since that would not be a limiting factor in customer web availability, and Miami links get back to ~3 miles. Looking at incumbent competition is also an interesting angle, but Phoenix becomes the mystery. Here is a unique city for broadband internet access today: US West offers commercial ADSL and COX offers commercial cable modem. Wow! This is not my idea of a market I want to jump in first -- give me a city with pent-up early-adopter demand for broadband access. I put Phoenix on the list just below Wichita for remarkable LMDS bid action.

To: Hiram Walker who wrote (1339)	2/27/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

Hiram: The San Francisco license includes the entire Bay Area. Last time I looked, Silicon Valley was rather flat, dry, and had only limited tree growth. It has also lots of potential customers. Concerning ADSL deployment in Northern California, if PacBell displays the same ardor in rolling out ADSL as it has done for ISDN, I would not be too worried. To get ISDN service installed at our house, we had to beg and grovel for at least 5 months. After at least 3 cancelled appointments, one of their technician finally deigned to show up, and needed only about 2 return visits to get the service up and running. Given this experience, I am not exactly looking forward towards having ADSL installed. I think I will hold out for LMDS. Best regards, Bernard Levy