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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10237)	2/27/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

TSO: All of those work. Esp. balance portfolio aspect. RE: End market - SEA is not 7% - it's about 20%. This is not going to 0. But prior capacity additions must have assumed the robust market there to continue. That leaves excess capacity now. The other issue is the rapid move to 0.25. In effect making a ton more chips available. Ergo, excess capacity. Commodity semis will be hurt. Front end semi-equips will be hurt. ---- One could make this argument: Pretend this is early 1997. I'm Mr. Korea/Japan Semicon CEO. I see the experts predicting 10% growth for 1997 and 18% for 1998. I see fairly strong unit demand. So I order new equipment. Build capacity in anticipation. Well 1997 pretty much fizzles and 1998 looks like it's going to fizzle (10% for 1997 is now 4% and 18% for 1998 is now single digits.) End result: I have a motherload of capacity available and nothing to use it on. ---- Now it's early 1998. I have a lot of extra capacity. I see poor predicted extra demand because of Asia etc. Why would I order now? Heck even if I wanted to I don't have money.