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To: Duane L. Olson who wrote (10239)	2/27/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 25814

TSO: It's not just end demand. It's end demand and capacity. --- Yes Taiwan is buying - AMAT's #s showed that. But it would take a miracle for Taiwan to match the Korean/Japanese spending. And again Taiwan does not do DRAM anywhere close to the other two. So all those buys that guy was talking about are not for DRAM they are likely for foundries. DRAM is just so much bigger than foundries it's really no comparison. AMAT would not be predicting 5 - 10% sales reduction if the sales reductions were being matched by the Taiwanese sales. AMAT would have instead been predicting a 5 - 10% sales increase. ----- Let's examine the trend for expected sales for 1998: (a) 10+% (b) 4% (c) -5% ( (a) is late 1997 predictions, (b) is single digits prediction after reality sets in, (c) is another dose of reality. If AMAT does 5 to 10% reduction the average semi-equip will do a lot worse. I was being generous with (c) ) This is not the trend that rising stock prices are made of. All of a sudden profits become losses. ----