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Strategies & Market Trends : Stochastics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CJ Owen Critchley who wrote (280)	2/27/1998 8:35:00 AM
From: MJR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 927

All: My trading strategy is to buy options based on short term (3-10 day generally) trends on a set of companies within a watch list. I have been looking at CBS's Marketwatch and they have a pretty good suite of charting available. I am especially interested in the stochastics graphs. For this trading strategy, what stochastic period would you recommend? Thanks, Mike

To: CJ Owen Critchley who wrote (280)	2/27/1998 9:20:00 AM
From: Wayners	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 927

Analysis at close on 2/26/98. The top of the list hasn't been updated for today. Ran out of time. I've revised the majority of the bottom of the list based on inputs. Let me know if I missed something. NASDAQ Still in a strong uptrend. Bollinger bands widening as part of next run. Upward volatility is increasing. 5 day stochastics have pulled back from near the top band. Still looks real good for technology and small caps. AMAT Flat out neutral trend now, but its stayed above the 12 day moving average. 5 day stochastics are hooking upward again from the lower bollinger band. This could easily break to the upside. I predict an upward break. Volatility is due to start increasing and the big move is coming, just not yet. Safest to just wait for the break and jump on board for the ride. AMD Stronger uptrend, but 5 day stochastics are getting closer to peaking, but not yet. Soon to be followed by consolidation and profit taking. Volatility is peaking. Probably a good time to take short term profits in next few days. AMZN Still on slight uptrend. 5 day stochastics starting to deteriorate. Time to take profits for the next dip or just hold it and ride the uptrend. AOL 5 day stochastics peaked and hooked downward. Solid uptrend. Profit taking and consolidation taking hold with the trend remaining intact. Volatility is decreasing. Take profits and buy on the next dip. ASND 5 day stochastics are peaking and hooking downwared. Uptrend still in play. Volatility is starting to increase to the upside. Narrow bollinger bands. Probably should just hold through the consolidation period unless you are day trading. Just ride the trend up. AVM Broke upwards towards the upper bollinger band on a downtrend. Good short play when you see the 5 day stochastics hook downward. Volatility is neutral to slightly down. AVNT Direction changed rapidly on narrow bands. Going to consolidate for a few days. Volatility is peaking. If you shorted it short term, take profits over next few days. BBIOY Expected to consolidate for several weeks. Dead money for now. BMY The trend is slightly down. 5 day stochastics are quite high but not showing the hook yet. This is developing into a real good short play. Look for the hook. Volatility is likely to increase. CADE Looks like it might be time to buy back in. 5 day stochastics hooking upward. Slight uptrend. Volatility is decreasing, but should be enough time for a quick play to the upside. CBIZ Broke down today. The trend is neutral. Watch the trend carefully. Volatility is still decreasing but looks like its almost over. Buy a hook in 5 day stochastics or buy at the lower bollinger band on price. CDRD Downward volatility is increasing. The trend is neutral on price. Look for a hook upward in the 5 day stochastics and make sure the trend is at least neutral. If it slips into a downtrend, don't go long. Look for a short opportunity. Those wanting to take more risk can try buying at the bottom bollinger band on price. CEXP Slight uptrend. Long term trend is way down--so makes me nervous for long positions. 5 Day stochastics moving up higher but not peaking yet. Volatility is neutral--just staying about the same. Broke upward somewhat. Low volatility is keeping this thing down. CDRD Broke down today after 5 day stochastics crossed the middle band yesterday. The trend is going neutral. Probably a good idea to exit long positions on the next 5 day stochastic peak. CFON Another longer term downtrend to make it a risky long. Good short over $5. Closed a little below that. The trend is nicely down. Volatility is decreasing. Short over $5. CIEN Those wanting to take on some more risk can try to catch a quick bounce on the high volatility that appears to be peaked. Good time to write puts IMO. Severe downtrend now, 5 day stochastics below 20 showing a slight upward hook. This will be a fantastic short the next time I see the 5 day stochastics peaked. Volatility will be high and we'll have the downward directed PEGGED. CKFR Still not looking good.Go with the trend which is now solidly down. Do a quick short based on the recent peak in 5 day stochastics. Volatility is increasing a bit to the downside. Moving average on 5 day stochastics are down too. CLST Nice uptrend and the 5 day stochastics are hooking upward. Looks like an upward breakout about to happen.Volatility is low right now on fully narrowed bollinger bands. Looks like a good buy here. COMS Jumped up yesterday but didn't get a positive trend going yet from the previous neutral trend. 5 day stochastics getting higher but their not peaked yet. One more up day and I'd go long. CORR 5 day stochastics hooking down on uptrend. Probably should just hold it through consolidation period. Volatility is increasing as the price goes up--helping the profits along on the long side. CPQ Trend is starting to look sick here. Bollinger bands fully narrowed now. Volatility is increasing to the downside. 5 day stochastics are peaked and heading lower. Moving average on 5 day stochastics is down--also limited upside gain potential. It could bottom quickly so I wouldn't short it. CTXS Showing a bounce on the uptrend. Its entering my short radar scope on the next hook downward in stochastics. Volatility appears to be peaked, so play it between the bands. CYMI Shot upwards but the trend is still neutral to down. Volatility is increasing, most likely to the upside. Moving average of 5 day stochastics hooked upwards. No play to see what the trend does. CYBR Volatility increasing. I don't think its a reversal or prolonged move to the upside. 5 day stochastics hooking downward. I think its increasing the volatility for a solid downward move. Look at the last drop. Price broke to the upside before going down substantially. Don't be fooled. The long term downtrend will keep this one down. CYPB Ready to break upwards. Volatility set to increase. 5 day stochastics showing a hook to the upside from the oversold level. DELL Profit taking is occuring here. Trend still strongly up. 5 day stochastics peaked and hooking. Hard to see because the bands are so narrowly drawn around the 5 day stochastics--because of the really strong uptrend. Price is going to consolidate and volatility is decreasing. Take profits or write covered calls. DWRX Negative divergence between price and peaks on 5 day stochastics. The peaks have been getting lower as the price has been going up. The trend is losing gas, even though its still intact. Time to find an advantageous exit.. 5 day stochastics sitting on its lower band. Looks like a move up maybe. Take probits on next stochastics peak. EFII Trend on price has gone neutral. Trend on 5 day stochastics holding this thing down. 5 day stochastics quickly got tired. Wait for break to buy or short. Still think the bias is to the upside. GERN 5 day stochastic crossed below the 20 level. Still looking for a bottom here. Neutral trend and narrow bollinger bands make it a riskier play. Best way to play is to short at $13 1/2 and cover at $12 repeatedly. Revising buy level to the lower band which now stands at $11 7/8 its there now. Time to safely cover shorts. HRSH Don't like buying drops like this. Trend is solidly down. Dead money until I see an uptrend or a peak to short into. IIT Looks like a top to me. Look to take profits on long positions whne the 5 day stochastics breakdown. Look for short entry when you see the downward hook. On a slightdowntrend. IOM Low volatility decreasing the predictability. Downtrend picking up again. Volatility is increasing day to day. Could be a real good short here. 5 day stochastics very high at the upper band. IRIDF Volatility was real low making it unpredictable. Volatility has increased greatly to the upside. Looks like a good quick buy. JLG The volatility was very low but is due to increase. No breakout yet, even though a good strong up day. The uptrend is neutral now. Need to see a break. 5 day stochastics are very high suggesting liklihood for no upbreak. KLIC Narrow bands making it unpredictable. Uptrend intact giving it a bias for an upward break. 5 day stochastics are neutral. Volatility is very low. Probably more consolidation until I see the bollinger band width line go flat. LCCI Uptrend is intact. Very low volatility making this unpredictable. Volatility is decreasing. 5 day stochastics showing nice downward hook. LSI Volatility is low but increasing a bit. Slight downtrend now for shorting. Moving average on 5 day stochastics is down. 12 day moving average is down. 5 day stochastics rising for the next short opportunity. Taking into account the steep downtrend on the 5 day stochastic moving average tells me this is a good quick short. LTBG 5 day stochastics are at its upper band. Strong Downtrend with stochastics peaked and high current volatility. Look at a 3 day moving average on price starting to go down. Looks like a good quick short. LTXX Volatility is very low but increasing a bit. May see $5.50 but I think that'll be it. Long term downtrend still in place. MEDA uptrend undergoing profit taking and consolidation. Looks like this one will break upwards now. Watch it closely. Volatility is very low right now making it unpredictable. 5 day stochastics hooking upward so I'll give it an upward bias on a break for now. MIND Nice short play setting up. Quick buy for now. Look for the stochastics to peak. Downtrend has developed. Look for peak in stochastics w/hook to short into. Volatility has peaked so its a good trader right now. More downside potential. MPDI Pretty unpredictable stock. Uptrend in play. Upward volatility is increasing raising the trading potential of it. 5 day stochastics on a nice trend up. I'd only consider going long this stock. MSFT Strong uptrend. Volatility is near a peak making this a good trader. Volatility not likely to increase much further short term. Might want to write covered calls soon or take profits for the next runup. 5 day stochastics are peaked over 80, but not showing any type of hook. A bit too early to take profits. If you aren't in it consider doing a quick long play. MUEI Volatility very low making it very unpredictable. Volatility due to increase. Trend is neutral now. Showing a strong downward hook now. Too risky to play further. NORT downtrend and can't short it ($1.50 stock). Stochastics are less than the 12 day moving average which is bearish. NSCP Slight downtrend. Looking for a short opportunity with a stochastics peak. Volatility is low but is increasing to the downside making this a better trader. More room to the downside because the volatility is not peaked yet. ORCL Volatility due to increase--but its not happening yet. It is not looking good here. 5 day stochatics are peaked at the upper band. The trend is slightly down. I'd expect a downward break at this point. I'd short it here--or wait for the actual break down to avoid having dead money waiting for the break. OXHP Slight downtrend now. Nice upward hook on stochastics. Volatility is low but has been increasing a bit to the downside. 5 day stochastics are oversold--no upward hook showing. Short on any stochastic peak. PNDA Neutral to slight downtrend. Can't decide if it will break upwards or consolidate more. Volatility is currently very low--but due to increase. A big upmove here would not surprise me. Bias for an upward breakout. PRMS--Volatility still increasing. Broke downwards. Slight downtrend and and narrow bollinger bands. I'd strongly consider shorting it still--but this time wait for a small peak on the downtrend. Volatility is increasing to the dowside. Real good short play to jump on. QCOM Slight uptrend. Volatility is low but increasing. 5 day stochastics near a peak but not showing any deterioration downward. Strong resistance on the upside at $55. Play long until $55 then take profits. QWST Volatility is peaked now. Downtrend--short next stochastics peak. Dead money for awhile. No play until there is some price action. RIG Volatility is real low but showing a small increase. Neutral trend and too unpredictable to play. Bias for an upward break eventually. Good play for the real patient investor waiting for an upward break to occur. Can play with a buy stop to keep from having dead money. RMBS Volatility is currently very low making this a poor trader. The trend is neutral to slightly down. Band are narrow. 5 day stochastics right in the middle. Slight downward bias. Overall I think this is a no play or a short with a tight stop. SCTC Volatility ready to start increasing REAL soon. Narrowist bands now. The trend is dead nuts neutral--so no help there. High 5 day stochastics hook about to cross the middle band and downward trend on the 5 day stochastics gives it a downward break bias. SHVA May be making its next move up, but it seems too early for that. Volatility is pretty neutral and low and is due to increase. On an uptrend but should be consolidating for the next move. Buy a break up only. SMOD The trend is slightly down. Volatility is increasing and is currently pretty high making this a good trader right now. 5 day stochastics at the lower band and hooking upwared. Downward slope on the 5 day stochastic moving average. I'd buy it here for a quick play to the upside because of the high current volatility and the hook upward in the 5 day stochastic. SOCR Volatility continues to decrease. This thing doesn't appear to be going any lower in the next few days. If short--take profits and try to reshort at a higher price. SUNW This stock is acting unpredictably. Buy a break above $47.50. Volatility is likely to increase but currently low. Bottomed real quick. Short if price stalls at $47.50. SYNT on a strong uptrend but momentum is losing steam. Second stochastic peak lower than the first. Volatility is still increasing. May want to try a quick short because of the existing high volatility which is decreasing. TDFX Neutral volatility. Downward volatility is increasing. The trend is slightly down. Trend on 5 day stochastic moving average is down. Price is near the upper band ($25) and 5 day stochastics are at the upper band. Short here for a quick play or wait for a downward hook in stochastics. TMX Volatility is staying pretty much the same--low making it hard to trade for much profit. On a slight downtrend. Looking for a rehook downwards on 5 day stochastics--not showing a peak yet. Short at the upper band at about $52.50--pretty quick 3-5 day play. TRBO Volatility is decreasing. Neutral trend/slight uptrend.Not enough profit potential. Downtrend on 5 day stochastic moving average too to keep price moves down. 5 day stochastic is starting to hook up again. 5 day stochastics will whipsaw you on these narrow bands. TSSW Uptrend still intact. Volatility is neutralizing again. Looking for a hook to buy into. 5 day stochatics under 20. UEIC Nice uptrend--going through consolidation phase. Volatility is fully peaked for those that like to write covered calls. If long take profits and look for next buy-in hopefully lower. 5 day stochastics hooked down about halfway. Because of the high volatility it is probably shortable here down about 0.50. Set tight stop if you do that. VECO Volatility is increasing. Good uptrend. 5 day stochastics peaked and hooking down a bit-but because of the uptrend I think I'd ignore it unless it hooks down further. Neutral trend on 5 day stochastic moving average--life left in this uptrend. Unknown profit potential. $40 maybe on next run or just under. WCII The trend continues upward. Looks like a quick buy. Looking further ahead it looks like uptrend is getting weary. Take profits at the next top. Looks like volatility is due to increase to the upside--take profits on that next run at the peak in volatility. WTT Momentum appears to be slowing for this run. The volatility has peaked so I'd expect consoldation again until the bands are narrowed. Due to the existing high volatility, I think this is tradable from the short side--even though this goes against the trend. Use tight stops if you do that. The trend on stochastics is up. 5 day stochastics are hooked downward about halfway. If you are long--take profits. XCIT Volatility due to start increasing. Neutral trend after a small dip. Longer term trend is up. 5 day stochastics hooking upward. Looks like a quick buy (1-3 days) for now.