To: Rational who wrote (7662 ) 2/27/1998 10:07:00 PM From: Pancho Villa Respond to of 27307
Sankar: nice to cross your path again. I am patiently short YHOO and AOL and sold my UMG long two days ago, only to see it climb some more. The purpose of this message is to give my view (and get your opinion on it) on the recent price run on the internet stocks. One reason, of course, is the speculative wave in which the market has been riding since worries about Asia, Saddam, and Monica have faded away. However, IMO the key reason is that money managers, many of whom were computer illiterate until recently, have just discovered the wonders of the internet, (e.g., Cramer), particularly for investment information/management and think AOL market cap at over 10 billion (this is higher than the 9 billion CPQ paid for Digital in this inflated market). Nevermind that so far the only proven way of making money in the net is selling hardware (ask Cisco and Dell), all these wise guys are predicting Yahoo will make more money in the net than ABC selling ad. time to the likes of PG. Even though the net seems to be a poor media for advertising in the effective way that a passive media like TV can. Are you aware of any market research studies on the effectiveness of internet advertising? I haven't clicked in most than a hand full of ads (strike that make it a couple) in the past 12 months. The thing is that IMO being an active media, internet users are focused on what they are doing. they use the net for a specific purpose. If you want inf. on something, you just run a search, not wait for the proper ad to pass by you. Would not be surprissed to see the combined market cap of Yahoo and AOL coming fairly close to the market value of some of the TV networks. Pancho