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Strategies & Market Trends : Three Amigos Stock Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sergio H who wrote (1220)	2/27/1998 10:04:00 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Web-site problem,every time I click your URL I get a Java error message,and when I click "OK" on that window I am left with a message saying your browser does not support Java get yourself a real browser---but the problem is I DO have a real browser,Netscape4.0---am the only one with this problem????max90

To: Sergio H who wrote (1220)	2/28/1998 2:58:00 AM
From: Amigo Mike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Ok All, Here is some interesting news for everyone. It is a recent article in a very well respected business journal. Read very carefully. LITTLE KNOWN PATHOGEN COULD MEAN HUGE REVENUE BOOST FOR ANTEX BIOLOGICS. Biotech Firm is Working on Vaccine for Campylobacter. If Successful, Product Could Be Worth $200M - $400M/Year. By: Shell Schwartz - Daily Record Business Writer Toss around the terms "salmonella" and "E-Coli" and most people not only are familiar with the food-borne pathogens, but also can spout off their symptoms. And yet, Campylobacter - now the leading cause of food poisoning in this country - has gone largely unnoticed. "Not many people are aware of this [bacteria], but it is definitely on the emerging disease list," said Vic Esposito, chairman and chief executive of Antex Biologics in Gaithersburg. "Salmonella has been around a lot longer and gets a lot more attention, but you will be hearing more about Campylobacter than salmonella [in the future]." Potential Windfall Antex Biologics, a biopharmaceutical firm, is the only company in the world developing a vaccine for Campylobacter. The company is working with both the US Navy and pharmceutical giant SmithKline Beecham to develop a product that prevents Campylobacter related illness - which can cause severe diarrhea and in some cases death. If successful, analysts project the vaccine will be worth between $200 million and $400 million a year. Revenues like that would be enough to drive cash-poor Antex deep into profitability. "[Antex] has to show the reduction of bacteria levels and the translation of that effect into the reduction of diarrhea levels", said First Boston biotech analyst Shekbar Basu. "These are still early trials, but so far SmithKline Beecham is very positive about the outcomes Antex has had in animal testing." Four million Campylobacter infections occur in the United States each year, according to national health authorities. Worldwide, up to 500 million cases of Campylobacter-induced diarrhea are reported annually. Combined with pneumonia, the dehydration caused by severe diarrhea causes half of all deaths of children under age 5. "I think the incidence of Campylobacter infection as actually under-reported," Esposito said. "A lot of people who have upset stomachs or diarrhea don't go to the hospital". Campylobacter, he said, is usually spread through infected chicken meal. In the United States, studies suggest that 70% to 90% of chickens carry the pathogen. GROWING CHALLENGE Until recently, proper cooking and handling of chicken meal and the antibiotics given to the birds while alive, kept the bacteria in check. But it's not that easy anymore. "You are starting to find antibiotic-resistant strains of Campylobacter emerging," Esposito said. Additionally, scientists are beginning to suspect Guillain Barre Syndrome, an acute paralytic illness, may follow Campylobacter infections - about 5000 cases of Guillain Barre occur in the United States each year. Antex has several other vaccines in clinical trials, but the Campylobacter vaccineis farthest along in the pipeline. If all goes as planned, the company could be seeking approval on the patented product as early as 2000. There is mention of last years third quarter results and the Deloitte & Touche fastest growing companies list for this year. If you read this article carefully, you will have seen a big ANALYST talking about Antex. Albeit no hype .... but an analyst nonetheless. On another note ..... I am not sure how many of you have seen the investment banking model for Antex. Anyway .... the current valuation of Antex ...FULLY DILUTED (35 million shares) ..... was currently $2.51. THe interesting part is that my model used only $60 Million dollars in the calculation for Campylobacter. You can now see why I am very excited ....... if I plug in $200 million and Antex goes to Phase III trial soon ..... the valuation POPS TO $6.52 PER SHARE FULLY DILUTED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ($10 current out) Oh geezzzz ...... I think I wet my pants !!!!! I think we are about to embark to new levels this year with Antex. I'm sure you all know what I have been doing the last two days ...... buying more Antex shares ! Comments ???? Mike

To: Sergio H who wrote (1220)	2/28/1998 3:31:00 AM
From: Amigo Mike	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29382

Ola Amigo, Nice roundup. A few notes: ANTX ..... nice week ... up about 37%. I expect the action to continue next week. By now everyone should have read the article and a few comments by me at the end. Antex is going to make me very rich ..... it may not be tomorrow or next week ..... but I'm socking away as many shares as I can on this one. As long as SKB is IN ..... I am too. The Amigos take every opportunity available to get these shares cheaply. DHI ..... interesting week. Noticed mostly block activity all week. Option activity mid week. Seems a great deal of new option contracts were opened ... but I can;t determine if they were long or short. We are hoping that DHI POPS from here. Volume up very nice today and again new highs. Amigo Sergio mentioned WBB merger talks ..... if DHI is not a suitor ...they will certainly benefit by moving higher in sympathy play =). SRSL ..... is on the road for the next two weeks. Since this stock is mostly institutionally owned .... they are going to have to make these people happy. The Amigos will be watching the action very closely. RECY .... I am feeling the stock is consolidating at the $6 level and taking a 6 month view of the chart ...... RECY appears to be setting up a REAL NICE inverted H&S pattern that could send the stock to new highs over the next two months. CSIS ... our recent try at a daytrade ... well things have quieted very quickly =( .... not good for daytrading. CSIS does appear to be a possible MIMBO candidate. We will watch close a cut losses if necessary. ESV ... still needs to shake the oil price blues. NRL ... wonderful long termer. Gonna be a nice winner. I personally may consider grabbing some options on this stock to control a few more shares cheaply. APCO .... slow and steady =). Amigo Mike

To: Sergio H who wrote (1220)	2/28/1998 4:17:00 AM
From: Cary C	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29382

Sergio that was a GREAT article on NRL. Numbers first week in March. Could be very interesting next week. DHI how sweet it is. I am confused about the WBB thing. I did read where a big REIT and a big conventional home builder are vying to buy them. I personally would be surprised if this was DHI. It doesn't mean that people aren't speculating that they will. After all they have been on a buying spree. If this was the case I don't believe that institutions or wall street would be in favor of this since there was some concern over the CON deal. I am inclined to believe that most of the increase has been due to the increase in CON. It is however possible that word has finally gotten out that it is in our portfolio Now I know you take pleasure in proving me wrong. Remember as always though if I am wrong I did it on purpose so you could feel that you were teaching me something. Cary