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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Russell who wrote (29097)	2/28/1998 10:58:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

RR, on balance Drew Peck rules (although I'd suggest he think twice before ever again using the phrase "mathematically impossible" in forecasting sequential losses in TXN's DRAM ops.). Again, we'll soon see whether or not all the talking heads who are suddenly looking ahead to 1999 for the chip issues are willing to hold their positions. Maybe I'm missing something, but it's almost as if everyone seems to have suddenly changed the rules of the game on the fly in reaction to the Asian fallout. Have we seriously gone from a market where the big guys will dump on any miss (not the most long-term oriented perspective) to one where they're willing to accept several quarters of flat-to-negative top and bottom line sequential growth on the notion that "Asia's in there already"? I'd argue that the rally has been liquidity driven, aided by the backdrop of very good U.S. macroeconomic factors and the notion that U.S. equities are "safe" relative to their global peers. These guys have cash, they have to put it to use, everyone else seems to be coming up out of the fallout shelter on the group, the mo-mo guys are diving in as well, good hedge fund guys like Cramer are pragmatic enough to go long,... ...and now you have a situation where there are a lot of troops in very exposed positions. I'd argue that the mo-mo's and the hedge funds, at best, will not be providing as much close air support, which means the institutions are looking at dead money or worse until July. A while back on the thread I posed a question to the effect of "when does the discounting effect stop and the dead money effect begin on MU?" I guess that's the same question I have for the chip sector in general. I share Drew Peck's skepticism, although unlike Mr. Peck I never would say that anything is mathematically impossible when speaking of the DRAM players <g> Good trading, Tom