Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dupont Photomasks (DPMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew G. who wrote (268)	2/27/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 955

Andrew...I think you are on the right track with DPMI...Some of the others are popping as well (LU of course) but check CYMI 207.95.154.130 And, I suspect we will see some of the chip makers get a BIG move out of this if they announce an intention to do a bypass of .18 micron and/or .13 micron and go straight to .08. Can you imagine an LSI pumping some REAL circuitry into the System on a Chip of the future.. The possibilities are worth contemplating!! Will have to get "The Wizard" back over here to do an assessment...it is beyond me!! I'm not even the right kind of engineer... But the DPMI possibilities...just another year out, for example.. Let's calculate: Current earnings rate (ignoring currency problems) is about $2.60 per share... Analysts are projecting growth of 20+ percent... which would justify perhaps a 30 PE?... so a year out we get about $3.12/share X 30 PE = $94/share. If there is a more immediate effect to the move to .08 micron, (or just froim the fact that chips are getting more complex, and more photomasks are needed) and the ANTICIPATED growth rate appears to be faster than 20% annually... then we could see earnings move just a little faster...say 25% annual rate 24 months out...and the PE moves up to 35-40... Now we are looking at valuations in the range of: 2.60/share X 1.25 X 1.25 = $4.06 X 37PE = 170/share... No predictions...just have seen similar happen before... and worth thinking about, IMHO... Would you agree? TSO