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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Brickman who wrote (3768)	2/27/1998 11:52:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 18691

>>Trivia question: Why is PG thinking about raising the price of tide?<< JB: I used to work for PG, they do a ton of business in Asia (do not recall from latest annual report but this can be checked). The Asian crisis will hurt their earnings in fiscal 97/98. Historically, they have been a shop growing at 7% compounded rate. Their stock price today is as inflated as inflated can be (at least 30X), it has become kind of a momentum stock (like most stocks), the reduction in earnings may send the stock into a nose dive. Since today managements are extra sensitive to stock price fluctuations many CEO's check it by the minute in their Bloomberg's/cheap Yahoo quotes, I believe PG is trying to make up for loss earnings through its cash cow: Tide. Will it work? I have my reservations. IMO PG is a good short once the market euphoria dies out a bit, unfortunately I am overextended in my shorts otherwise I would be shorting PG and INTC now. Pancho