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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spartex who wrote (20468)	2/28/1998 2:13:00 AM
From: Elmo Gregory	Respond to of 42771

Quad-K: I must confess that my track record of correctly predicting Novell's future has fallen far short of perfection. With that caveat in mind, my opinion is that the class action lawsuit will have a short term adverse effect but very little long term. Other companies with significant financial and legal resources seem to survive pretty well most of the time. My feeling is that this lawsuit will not dislodge any officers or directors near term. There is a chance that some will leave voluntarily but I doubt it. As to the financial impact: Even if a judgment is reached in favor of the shareholders, it will be far enough in the future that Novell's ability to grow their market with new products to increase earnings will already have determined their fate. So, I think that how well Novell performs in the next three quarters will be more determinate of their financial condition and survivability than the present class action lawsuit. Disclaimer: The above is only my personal opinion. Regards, Elmo

To: Spartex who wrote (20468)	2/28/1998 3:22:00 AM
From: Ira Vine	Respond to of 42771

I have a few of stocks where there are class action lawsuits and I have yet to see one pay off. A few years ago, courts awarded some damages, but I think they began to realize that you could file similar law suits against any company that had bad results for a few quarters, and now they are much tougher to win. In any case, by the time the case gets decided the money will go to current stockholders grandchildren.

To: Spartex who wrote (20468)	2/28/1998 4:36:00 AM
From: Don Earl	Respond to of 42771

Hi Quad-K, Yep, that's what we've been trying to tell you all along. Of course everything is different now, and as Joe pointed out revenue has "stabilized" (note the ever present <g>). Myself personally, I don't really think a 6% decline in revenue is stable, but what do I know, I'm just a mean old bear that is trying to spoil all the fun. And the BOD isn't still running the show. And the CFO hasn't sold most of his stock. And Earnst & Young are a more honest accounting firm than they used to be. And Eric Schmidt is not the most recent in a long line of well paid patsies set up to take a fall. I do get a very strong sense of deja vu when comparing current statements made by the company to past statements made by the company. And no one seems to think there is anything strange about the company reporting $7 million more income on $17 million less sales. I wonder why Novell is so reluctant to spend any of the $1 billion in "cash" and what it would look like if an independent auditor went in and actually counted it. Consider the 15 million shares of Corel that are worth about $105 million less than they were when they got them. I do believe that the accounting statements refer to assets at cost at time of acquisition. Look at what happened to Informx or S3 after the independent auditors got through with them. I'm starting to wonder if things are not only as bad as I think they are but perhaps worse than my most pessimistic posts to date. Consider also some of the reviews on the Moab beta. There seem to be some serious stability problems. The company is bragging about 30 million beta testers but plan at least one more beta before the final release. Scott Lemon described the general process of beta testing from when he had his own company to me many moons ago. Three betas in as many months looks like trouble to me. Yet, R&D expenses "appear" to have dropped substantially. And look at the statements in the 10K that refer to possible disruptions to revenue with the first release of a new up grade. My hats off to Elmo for his usual and unusual ability to do some amazing research and post the results. If you ever see the BOD replaced with about half the folks on this thread, bet the farm. Seven spots, let's see; Joe, Dwight, Paul, Elmo, Scott, Salah, and throw everyone elses' name in the hat to draw the last spot. Then start picking names to replace most of the management until the hat's empty. Schmidt would probably still make a good CTO after he'd been sent to an exorcist. Regards, Don PS This post contains statements which are in the nature of opinion and speculation on my part.