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Technology Stocks : Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clifford Topel who wrote (204)	2/28/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Dr. J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 351

Earnings estimates have been lowered repeatedly over the last few weeks. According to my model, if you assume Aladdin growth rate of 20%, you get EPS of $1.11; at 15% you get $1.04. I think analysts are assuming that Q4 growth rate (15% in revenue) may continue into next year + some small contribution from ASE. Industry growth rate (combining RNBO and ALDNF numbers) was about 11% which is down from 15% most analysts have been assuming. But it was a slow quarter all round in the industry - not many shipments. WIth Win98 (Win99?) release we should see a pickup. Also, Aladdin took market share from Rainbow again last quarter. I am still trying to find out what they made on ASE in Q4; no response from management which is not a very good sign.

To: Clifford Topel who wrote (204)	3/1/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: Julio P. Antelo	Respond to of 351

Cliff, very discerning post. "If this puppy breaks below 13...we got mucho trouble". I think you're absolutely right. The technical action on this stock is just horrible. Since reaching its most recent high of 17 1/8 on 12/31 the stock has just "locked in" on a clear down channel. The selling has been hot and heavy with last week's 535,200 shrs. in 5 trading sessions, 3 times the normal daily average since Oct of last year. The stock pierced its 50-day MA on 2/11 and friday's action carried it about 11-12% below its 50-day MA. The first support level was 13 1/8 established on 12/17. That was taken out friday. The next support level is 11 7/8 and you have to go all the way to 8/19/97 to find that. I'm afraid that if that is taken out the stock will be headed to re-test its lows of around 9 set in April of 97. Can you say "stink"? One indicator telling us relatively good news in the RSI which reached a low of 35 on friday. This is clearly an oversold condition for the stock and the last time it was this low (33.9) was on 12/17 and at that time the stock rallied sharply to reach 17 1/8 on 12/31. Will it happen again? Dunno... what we need is a huge piece of good news: something that'll move this wounded bird. Otherwise look for a long spring and summer. Julio