SYQT's Short Term Moving Potential Analysis
SYQT had a break out day yesterday with a HUGE volume. When the volume reached 1mil at around 10:30am, I predicted that SYQT will hit $3 if the volume continues and reaches 4 - 5 mils. With the volume precisely reached 4 mil at around 1:30pm, the stock did hit $3! After that buyers seemed used up all their energy for the day, and the profit takers took over. With another 1.5mil shares traded, the stock pulled back 5/32 of point. All these moves seemed very classic and therefore predictable as it almost always happened in these low-price stocks.
What's Next?
What's next is totally depend on, no surprise, volume!!! Since SYQT is so affordable, everyone on the earth seems able to buy a couple grand shares of it, SYQT will have at least 2 - 3 upward days ahead. Again, depend on the volume, SYQT could meet or beat $3.5 by mid of next week. How much volume we need? I think at least 3mil (perhaps 5 mils) for Monday to keep SYQT floating above $3 at close, and another 3 mil each Tuesday and Wednesday to push SYQT to $3.5. That volume is needed to absorb the profit taking pressure. I noticed that the estimated selling pressure for each 1/8 of point is about 1 mils, and that figure doubles at the key resistance points, such as $3, $3.5, etc. These are just volume that we need to push the stock up. To keep it up there needs extra sustained buyings. What happened on Friday is a classic example, we used 4 mils to move up about 4/8 of point (from 2- 9/16 to 3), but after that buyings were slowed, and another mil and half moved SYQT back 5/32. But since it was Friday late afternoon, it is usually the case that a stock will pull back a little after a big % runup, because some people try to lock the profit before weekend. It is also usually the case that whatever the pull back on the Friday will be eclipsed the first thing next Monday morning when buyers have re-accumulated energy over the weekend. So I'd like to say that SYQT will open Monday morning with a gap up to close to $3, say at $2-7/8 to $2-15/16, and it will quickly eclipse $3 and then some by 10:30am ET. If the volume keeps at the rate of 0.5mil/hour, then we should be able to absorb the selling pressure. The good thing is that we have taken away some of the huge selling pressure at $3 in our first rush to $3 on Friday, so the remaining pressure is not that huge any more.
Once (and if) we overcome $3 on Monday, I think we will have a relatively easier cruse to mid $3 next couple days. The volume needed could be a little less. We will, however, meet another major hurdle at $3.5 that will require at least 8 - 10 mil total volume to finally overpass it. I think $3.5 is a bigger hurdle than $3 because lots of people bot in at $3 to $3-1/2 just before last qtr release, and some of them may want to get out at break-even or with a slight profit. So the volume is critical to make SYQT stay above $3.5 by the next weekend.
Once we get used to $3.5 (hopefully by next weekend), people will start talking about $4. I would think we don't need too much of the volume to move SYQT from $3.5 to $4, say about 2 - 3mil total. The true battle will start, however, at $4, and we will have up-down moves all over the place around $4 for at least weeks, perhaps a month toward March qtr release day of Apr 12. After that everyone knows that where SYQT will go totally depends on the qtr result. If we have revenue of $45mil combined with a loss of -30c or less, we will have $6 SYQT. If not, who knows will SYQT will be...
Do We Have Volume?
Now we know that we need volume. Do we have it? My guess is that we do! At least for another week or so. With all the publicity and talks all over the ciber space, almost every small investors is talking about SparQ and SYQT. Since SYQT is so cheap at $3, everyone seems able to grab couple grand of it, I'm sure a lot of newbies will jump in. On the other hand, those sophisticated investors, including big institution investors, will pay more attention on the potential of SYQT. In fact, I think the past couple day's volume has suggested that some big fishes are buying the stock at truck loads. If it is true that they started buying, I think the trend will continue, `cuz they are not those small investors who bot in at $2.5 and sold at $2-11/16. They are there for at least 6 - 12 months and looking for $10 or more, perhaps a lot more! Now there is a third hand, the IOM investor hand that is. IOM is big stock and therefore has lots of investors. Many of them bot in IOM because of Iomaga's recent ad campaign. But once they started reading messages about IOM, they start to hear SparQ and SYQT. The more they read about SparQ, the more they are scared, therefore the more they pay attention to what SYQT is doing. Now that all of a sudden SYQT shot up 10% in a day and IOM down a quarter, they will think that their Titanic is sinking and many of them will jump the ship over. What the hack, after all they can get close to 3 shares of SYQT with every 1 shares of IOM they own. What a bargain! Then there is a fourth hand, the shorties! Those 11mil shares of shorts are among the scariest people on the world this weekend. If half of them are forced to cover between $3 to $4, we will have powerful base for SYQT, `cuz every time when SYQT has a slight pull back, the shorties will use the opportunity to cover, thus move the stock up again. What a good helper out there for us!
Now you have it. SYQT has the momentum, volume, cheap stock price, publicity and great products. What else you need to move it upward! Based on this analysis, I'm confident that SYQT will overcome $3 for sure, reach $3.5 very likely, and hit $4 possibly in one or two weeks!
Keep our fingers crossed!
MB |
