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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IKM who wrote (8371)	2/28/1998 11:04:00 AM
From: rhet0ric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13594

For me the question is when, not if, to short. The thing that will burst this stock's bubble is a rude surprise of some sort, like an earnings shortfall or a market share slippage. I don't see an earnings shortfall coming in the near term after these rate hike and layoff announcements. So I don't think it's a good idea to short before the next earnings announcement. But after that, AOL is prime. The MCI announcement is ideal. Worldcom is extremely aggressive. With AOL's price going up and MCI's going down, new user signup will decrease and churn will increase. It'll take a little while before the effects show, but when they do it'll rip a hole in this bloated stock. Can anyone point me to a good analysis of AOL's revenue going forward, and especially how and when the rate hike will affect it? Thanks in advance. rhet0ric p.s. On another note, I think it's important to point out that AOL, despite popular belief is not an Internet stock. Its association with the Internet is due to lack of knowledge. As time goes on and the technological problems of AOL keeping up with an open standard increase, people will realize this, and then the stock will really tank.