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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3776)	2/28/1998 3:03:00 PM
From: Gordon A. Langston	Respond to of 18691

Roger, CTXS negative on Market Edge 207.53.33.62

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (3776)	2/28/1998 8:10:00 PM
From: Yamakita	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I don't think Scott will mind me posting our email exchange: Scott: "Then I take it you are saying that they (Japanese) will be selling large amounts of US Treasuries. The price goes down and the interest rate climbs. I have never played the bond market but it would seem that shorting a small position in some form of bond might not hurt. What are your thoughts on that?" Yamakita: "No no no-- I think they will be buying large amounts of Treasuries! Current interest rates on the best fixed-income deal in Japan--so called "timed deposits" is 0.135%. Not a typo. All of sudden people are faced with the choice of their good ol' stable postal account, or taking a "risk" and buying US Treasuries at 6% or whatever they are now. I'm currently ghostwriting a book for a business guru here who thinks that as much as $2 trillion could start flowing into US markets in April. I think he's probably right. It won't happen all at once, but once it starts getting getting faddish and popular to buy US bonds and securities, it will take off big time. My humble opinion only. But I'd be VERY careful about shorting bonds."