To: Sr K who wrote (31455 ) 2/28/1998 3:27:00 PM From: Phillip Crone Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
BEklein: No doubt I could have done better on my purchases of my shorts, however I wasn't necessarily looking to day trade. I bought based upon my fundamentals and not technical chart reading. I basically was wrong in thinking that Dell would announce a warning about the Asian Crisis. I do know that they don't have much Asian exposure, however like most domestic based companies that is one of their largest future potential growth areas. No one can daytrade over a long period of time and be successful all of the time. I can't, Warren Buffet can't and so on. I am looking out 3 to 6 months (if you can call that long term) and there is where I see the blip on the radar screen. I do believe that the under $1000 PC price is going to have an effect on Dell with decreased margins. I can't believe that IBM, CPQ and HP are going to just sit by and have there clocks cleaned by Dell. I am lucky that I have the staying power to stick with this short or take a loss and move on. I don't mean to rub that into anyone's face, just explaining my psychology of trading. I don't like to lose money more than anyone else, but sometimes that just part of the game and I am a big boy . Finally, I want to stress that I have been a "top" sales person in the computer industry for 14 years now. I have seen the entire story fold before my eyes and bank account. I know that Dell can only get so big and handle the business with their direct strategy. CPQ, IBM and HWP who all use a variety of direct and distribution have literally millions of sales people out in the field pushing their products. Using the channel gives the customer a one stop shop for most of their computer and software and integration services. All of the Value added resellers in the world who sell a specialized software will only sell a hardware box that is not sold on a solely direct basis, like Dell and Gateway. By using wholesale distributors like Ingram Micro, Tech Data, Merisel and Gates Arrow, the large box movers like IBM, CPQ and HWP only have do deal with 4 or 5 large customers instead of millions like dell. (speaking in terms of accounts rec ect... They leave the support up to the experts, not 8 bucks and hour phone people. The Corporate Market place is where the big bucks can be made by selling high end boxes and I don't believe that Dell is going to dominate that market. I think they would have a better long term strategy of focusing on SOHO and the small end user market place like Gateway. ***Sorry this morning for calling the new Network Computers NIC's this morning instead of NC's. They are still new to me as well . Have a great day!