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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Antol who wrote (20474)	2/28/1998 10:27:00 AM
From: Wallace Rivers	Respond to of 42771

Thanks Joe: Have been contemplating just such action...otherwise have been doing pretty well; I guess pretty much everyone has a clunker in his or her portfolio, and the clunkers can be used to offset gains. Best, Wallace

To: Joe Antol who wrote (20474)	2/28/1998 10:59:00 AM
From: Jim McCormack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Sounds More and More like Apple everyday... Yeh this sure sounds like an Apple to me. The problem is all this negative stuff takes on a life of its own and then builds. Soon no one knows where it comes from but it affects buying decisions. Things will unravel slowly but surely IMHO. If this bad news hits the rags and is spun as a problem dense IT Directors will use it as one more excuse to steer clear of Novell. God forbid they miss a beta date or screw up anything right now. Cutting R&D - thats great - How do you think the IT managers view that move with all the new products moving through beta. Apple did the same thing. Cut the QA department too as I recall. Novell has to manage perceptions - Eric sucks at understanding the market perception of what he says - or more importantly doesn't say - no more interviews please... Novell is acting as if the trouble is still there and they know it but will not admit it to outsiders. Look for more cost cutting to adjust to shrinking sales. They will not be profitable at this rate next quarter. I think they know it but are hoping for a miracle to grow the way through this transition. It will not happen. Stuffing may be the only answer. Oh yes - Apple ditched the Handhelds this week - No more Emate or MP2100. These early devices created the handheld space and defined the entire product strategy for the group. This is tragic. Microsoft has done it again. Windows CE and the PAlm Pilot have taken the great ideas and repackaged and marketed them as business and personal tools instead of "Cool" technology. Apple is a great creative company just like Novell - but in the end that doesn't count. What counts is getting things to market that have been well positioned to fill a need. As a matter of fact Novelll users are becoming religious about Novell just like Apple users - this is a really bad sign. The siege mentality - a sure sign the battle is lost. Look for Novell to cancel projects (Or roll them back into themselves - Novonyx) and shelve futures to cut expenses as soon as the fully understand that the sales are not coming to bail them out. Just keep thinking of Apple when you think of Novell. It is a great guide. Don't worry about the differences in products - the point is the way the BOD responds and the management responds. These two companies have a the same type of corporate culture and the responses by Novell are a lot like the intial responses of Apple when the market shifted away from them. IMHO the results will also be the same. Novell is not a Billion dollar company. They must get small very quickly. The sooner they do it the sooner they will begin to focus and make some money. Sell Groupwise, Sell Managewise, Spin off the that God aweful book publishing. Keep Intranetware, Border Manager - the plumbing! Good investing! Jim McCormack Note for the Cisco folks debating Layer 3..... 2 years ago we went with Layer 3 switching (UB "Bulldogs") and ditched the Ciscos for ATM switching fabric between our Hubs on our LAN. Still use Cisco for the WAN....