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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: seth thomas who wrote (5708)	2/28/1998 11:50:00 AM
From: Dan O.	Respond to of 19080

Steve it seems your hope on coming out on your orcl puts is based on rumor. Do you know of any lost deals, or any facts that would lead me to believe they will not make the qtr? Ellison & Lane. 2/3rd of the way through the qtr they should know what is in their coffers. DB sales are 1/3 of revenue. I thought they were more but I'll look. Your last estimate was 1/4 (post 5591) so it sound like your not certain either. If you can lead me to a breakdown (of the revs) please do. My point here is that First Call estimates from 26 analysts is $0.19, exactly the same as 1 year ago. There may be whisper numbers based on what Ellison & Lane said, I wouldn't be surprised. But that would account for the 25% rise since the remarks. The stock is almost exactly where it was 1 year ago, down over 40% from its top. I think that lower expectations are already built into the price. This stock is very much lagging the large cap software companies. Do you really expect a 25% drop in the stock price if they only come in with 10-20% growth. I'm not sure but wasn't that what msft predicted in their cc and they're not hurting. I think that <20 would only happen with a very negative forward looking conference call. Given 10 trading days to the earnings I think its a little late to pre-announce a disappointment, but with Ellison anything is possible. I've got a few orq mar25c's which I betting will work out. Now if UBS doesn't downgrade them for no reason, like last year. If Clinton stays out of trouble, if Southeast Asia doesn't blow up, if other techs don't pre-announce, if Iraq doesn't blow up, if oil prices remain low, if Greenspan doesn't start talking deflation, if fund inflows decrease, if... Hell, maybe I'll short orcl too. Nah. Dan Ogens ps: any input is welcome, I still have 10 days to sell my calls.

To: seth thomas who wrote (5708)	2/28/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Andy M.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19080

Steven, If the rumor mill is such a reliable predictor, how could ORCL have had two big price shifts after earnings were announced within the past year, to the upside a year ago and to the downside last quarter? If what you're saying about the thousands of people with reliable leakable information is true, then the price should sort itself out ahead of time. I think it's safe to say that no one knows the real numbers better than Lane and Ellison. Ellison's 25% comment was not a slip of the tongue; he repeated it several times. Also, the upbeat comments Ellison made the quarter before were extremely vague. Some of them were on the order of "business is great" and applied as much to the state of the economy as a whole as ORCL. Also, he made those comments last quarter before any hardcore results could have even been available. If last quarter's fiasco hasn't made him more cautious about predicting future results, especially with a shareholder suit looming, then he really is loony, and I really doubt that is the case. Having said that, I also doubt there will be a big upside suprise. They will be either in-line or a penny or two above. I'd be real surprised if they disappointed this quarter. Of course, there is very little behind my sense aside from what I've been reading on this thread and Yahoo news. We'll see. Andy

To: seth thomas who wrote (5708)	2/28/1998 3:25:00 PM
From: HammerHead	Respond to of 19080

So far many software companies, ADSK CA IFMX MSFT, have come out with earnings above expectation, why do you think Oracle will have exception? I am not worry that the earnings will beat the estimate. I am more concerned the street reaction after the earnings release. At the price below $25, I think we are setting the stage to jump up $4 if it beats the estimate by 2 cents.

To: seth thomas who wrote (5708)	2/28/1998 3:53:00 PM
From: zc66	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19080

The overall revenue growth is always higher than database growth. For example, last Qtr's database growth was 3%, but overall growth was 29% (in local currencies). If this quarter's database growth is 25%, the overall growth should be much higher.