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To: stephen wall who wrote (31469)2/28/1998 4:13:00 PM
From: Phillip Crone  Respond to of 176387
 
Stephen, thanks for your perspective which is different than mine. Let's agree on one thing the PC market place is split between:

Corporate
SOHO
Home

I do not predict that the NC is going to replace the Corporate computer or the SOHO computer. I do think that if an ISP comes out with a $29.95 per month and free NC computer that there will be millions and millions of NC's finding there way to the home market place.

As for the Corporate and SOHO: This market will be dictated by the speed and reliability of the internet. If we all have ISDN type speed to the desktop in the near future and we have removeable credit card type hard drives that hold terabytes then we won't have the need for manually loaded software or applications. They will be all real time from an intranet or other service. I predict that we will have line speeds and chip speeds at this level within 3 years. The servers for all of these intranets are still going to be a huge market, but I don't believe that over time the desktop user is going to need a mini tower with 8 slots and 3 video cards when Intel will have all of these features built into their new "super chips" of the future.

NC's will become as popular as the phone. Maybe the phone companies will give you a NC if you sign up for their service, long distance and local calling which includes internet over the same service. I believe that in 10 years NC's will be in your bedroom, kitchen and home office.

When will NC's make it to the corporate arena, probably never in the proposed $499 form. But a hybrid $699 version might be just fine when it only takes 1 minute to download Microsoft Office or other applications in the future.

I love selling big boxes because I make alot more money, I see the big boxes for servers, intranets and even Video conferencing. My company is one of a handful of direct distributors for the Intel Video Conferencing boardroom computer called Teamstation. This video application sucks many MIPS and requires the latest and greatest processor and video accelerators on the market place, it is basically a hot rod computer. The average desktop user will never need this much horsepower in the future.

When I started in the PC industry in 1983 we were the joke of the MIS departments because they couldn't believe that a personal computer could ever compete with the main frame technology and dumb terminals of that time. The future of the "dumb" terminal will be more powerful than the mainframes of the past. Don't forget that our NC's of the future are still going to have powerful processors in them, we just aren't going to need alot of room for expansion in 3 to 5 years.

Thanks again for your reply.