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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (31503)	2/28/1998 7:50:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Jeff, Interesting argument. Could you recommend a shorting strategy or perhaps a put strategy with some price targets this quarter and next?

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (31503)	2/28/1998 8:27:00 PM
From: Lazlo Pierce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Jeff<<I agree with the DELL Bear case. It is rather difficult to ever short the exact top, but I think short term (6-9 months time frame) DELL has "peaked". The common stock is up from $79 3/8 on January 12th. That is a 76% move since that time based on yesterday's close of $139 7/8.>> *************** Actually, the stock had been as high as 102 in early Oct 97,so its only trading 37% higher in 6 months** (it all depends on how you look at it). And whenever I hear a bear say, it can't keep sustaining this. I say 2 things. 1. It moved (pre-split)from a low of 99 on May 31, 1997 (day Intel warned) to 170 on July 25. 2.People said it was over valued then, and couldn't sustain it, well here we are at a (pre-split) level of 280(139 7/8 x 2), and they are saying the same thing. Well, until it turns, it'll run, this will be the 3rd split for me (in just over 18 months), and the fundementals look good for the next year out (at a minimum), lots of market share left to get, especially in the profitable server sector, and emerging markets. At some point, it'll slow, granted. I'm betting it won't be for at least a few more years, and a few more splits. Dave

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (31503)	2/28/1998 8:36:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Respond to of 176387

So basically you are saying that DELL is a high beta stock. Regards, Paul

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (31503)	2/28/1998 9:51:00 PM
From: John Rowton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

I shorted dell last time at 98 and covered at 75. In retrospect I should have then went long but I did not. I am looking at another short possibility. If it were not for the split, I would have done it Friday. It might be the best company in the world but parabolic chart patterns come down. Yahoo is another one along with aol. It is just like October, when the big mo ends, and it always does, the mo stocks correct the most.

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (31503)	3/1/1998 7:44:00 AM
From: Phillip Crone	Respond to of 176387

Jeff, that is the nicest and most civil "short" remark that I have heard in sometime. The emotions from the Bulls are really humorous at times. If you want good comedy then check out the Dell Chat at Yahoo. They spend most of their time talking about religion, race and IQ. Personal attacks are more common than Suddam's response to non-loyal Iraqi's. As I have said here the past few days, I don't hate Dell, I think it is just time for a little stumble. I "hope" that the PC industry does well since that is where I earn my living. Nobody, including myself makes any money until they sell a stock. Diversification is the key to investing and life over the long run. There will be a day in the next few years when Dell will give back almost everything it has earned. This computer business can turn on a dime and many companies that were in vogue one year are out of business the next. Who would have thought 15 years ago that IBM, DEC, Wang, Data General Unisys would be "killed" by little PC companies. PC's will be like TV's, how many TV manufacturers do you know that dominate the industry from the United States???? Only those who know the computer industry well know what I am talking about, "that things can turn on a dime". Media is a good example. Many companies put their future fortunes in 5.25" media, like Dysan. They couldn't believe that their dominance in the industry would ever be changed by this little Sony product that worked on a 3.5" platform. So who drives the industry and doesn't just follow it??? Of course Microsoft and Intel. In the near future the next most important element is going to be the "pipe". Will it be broadband, Satelite or ISDN??? Just some thoughts to think about on a Sunday Morning.

To: Jeff Mills who wrote (31503)	3/2/1998 12:12:00 PM
From: jbn3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Perspectives... The common stock is up from $79 3/8 on January 12th. That is a 76% move since that time based on yesterday's close of $139 7/8. Curious. Why did you select that particular data, and not something like: "The common stock is up from $103 in mid-September. That is nearly a 37% move based on yesterday's close of $139 7/8. For a company growing revenues at nearly 80% that is about right for a 6-month time frame." wsrn.com For DELL to go higher and higher alot of events must stay "under control" because DELL will no longer be trading off that earnings report released last week. That report is just about played out. And you may be correct. For the interim. DELL will have another earnings report in 3 months. And then in another 3 months. It may well slow down or dip before then. I hope it does, because I want more, and more cheaply. You may not think DELL will increase earnings next quarter. I do. Additionally, one could argue that if disk drive and DRAM supplys come back into "check" and prices move up, DELL would suffer--just as they have benefited from the "downturn" in pricing over the last 3-4 quarters. Since you are hypothesizing that the DRAM supply might come back into balance, driving prices up and negatively impacting DELL, could you provide a logic a) why that would specifically hurt DELL and not the other producers as a group; b) why DELL's quicker reaction time to price fluctuations would not provide them an advantage over the others in choosing to adjust prices or margin. When a person shorts, he/she is just saying "this is a good time for me to sell DELL". Nothing more nothing less. As longs, our perspective tends toward the sentiment that there is no <good time> to sell DELL. As a trader, obviously, you make your money on short term movements. I suspect you are right, that DELL may dip somewhat during the latter part of this month. But it doesn't worry me. Just a few perspectives... DELLish, 3.