Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wooden ships who wrote (3696)	2/28/1998 8:12:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

RE: "By inference, then, the market should thus be expected to revert to its mean, i.e., its historical average of 10% gains per year over the very long term. Does not this argument in itself make a compelling case for stockpicking versus index investing going forward?" Only if you can "beat the market" with your stock picks. I've been trying for about 30 years (more than 30 years, when I actually stop to do the math - - wow - -). My record on most stock picks is quite good. However, I purchased a couple of real losers, which hurt my overall performance quite a bit. After 30 years, I'm basically in line with overall market returns. It was great fun trying to beat the market, but very time consuming. I'm just about ready to throw in the towel and move more into the index fund arena. Best wishes, I2

To: wooden ships who wrote (3696)	2/28/1998 11:44:00 PM
From: Gary D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Truman, Bob's emphasis of the fact that the beginning of a bear market could coincide with a call for an "intermediate term correction" from his model is interesting for those of us who wonder about the effect Bob's call will have on the market. A call for an intermediate term correction is likely to receive much less media attention than a call for a bear market. An early leak of newsletter content, if it happens at the time of a call for an intermediate correction, hopefully will not put subscribers at much of a disadvantage. >>Should individual issues become the focus now given Brinker's inferred major market slowdown? << Instead of individual issues, how about managed mutual funds, in order to reduce specific stock risk? (But, then, was I hearing correctly today when I heard Bob say today that he doesn't know why he still invests in managed mutual funds, that maybe he just does so 'out of habit'?) Perhaps we should just be content with 10% or less in a slower market environment, while waiting for either a resumption of the raging bull, or a good opportunity to short.