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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akidron who wrote (16816)	2/28/1998 10:36:00 PM
From: akidron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I RECIEVED THIS POST.... please be advized that I will email it to AMAT for comment Subject: AMAT is on the prowl Date: Sat, 28 Feb 1998 02:39:01 EST From: User770641 <User770641@aol.com> To: akidron@concentric.net Don't worry, AMAT is gonna make up alot of ground when it completes the acquisition of a non-public co. that is an equipment manufacturer of fully automated wet process systems. The kicker is this company also has a proprietary non contact post CMP cleaning tool that will significantly enhance AMAT's position in the CMP market because they will have a better system than what ONTRAK is presently selling to AMAT! They will also be able to enter into the $2 billion wet process systems business. It should get interesting because their total costs for this company are only $100 to $150 mil!

To: akidron who wrote (16816)	3/1/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Aki, I do think that we are the benefactors of market exhuberance and mutual fund inflows to a certain extent. Read: AMAT is not the bargain it was in '96 at 1X revs. Having said that, this is not '96 revisited. This is a temporary slowdown with a large latent demand for equipment bsing delayed because of uncertainties over SEA. Many semis have come out and said this. Given that this is not a end user demad problem, once capital can be acquired by Korea, IMO they will put it to use in the semis. They too have already come out and said this. Given that there is not an end user demand problem like in '96 and the fact that there is much equipment to be upgraded, in no way would I compare this current downturn to the one of '96. I have already given an analogy of what I perceive the situation to be: its like an 8.0 earthquake followed by a MUCH smaller aftershock. IMHO, we are currently experiencing the aftershock. Brian

To: akidron who wrote (16816)	3/2/1998 10:46:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Aki, I was gone for a few days, but let me respond now. I have mentioned to some of the people here in private mail that I would sell some amat and the others on the run that I expected would occur after the INTC e report. You can go back and see for yourself that I felt that the surge would occur then. I did sell some last week, and have about half of what I had on Dec 12. I still have over 15,000 shares of 4 equips. I think that we could see the 20's again, but no lower than 25. I want this to happen because I will use heavy margin again at those levels. This time I will not sell as much on the next rise. I plan on holding about twice as much as I have now until amat is around 100 in 2-3 years. Of course this is not the same opportunity that 1996 was! That was the 3 or 4th largest disconnect from reality in the market that I have seen since 1987. AMAT would have to hit the mid teens to be the same opportunity. I don't consider myself a trader and I don't predict short term prices. But I do try to take advantage of periodic short term hiccups in the market. I am hoping one is starting now, I am not predicting it. I do know that I follow 100 or so companies closely, and one or two will cooperate with me soon. I hope it is a semi-equip.