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To: Helios who wrote (12759)	3/1/1998 3:44:00 PM
From: Jurgen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Jurgen, good buddy, I do like a challenge. Look at the Sears chart Yes, Sears (S) is a good one: let's see: (6/1/92-2/27/98) You buy/sell when the close crosses below/above 200 day MA Profit: -68%, 1 winning, 18 losing trades (ouch!) You buy/sell when the close crosses below/above 50 day MA Profit: -75%, 5 winning, 26 losing trades You buy/sell when the close crosses below/above 150 day MA Profit: -22%, 3 winning, 17 losing trades You buy/hold: +168% My good old Dahl: +48% Ciena Corp ? Sorry, can't accept that one, i'm long since wednesday Helios, i don't want a contest. All i'm saying is that trend-following systems do better than random. Jurgen

To: Helios who wrote (12759)	3/1/1998 5:46:00 PM
From: sepku	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Helios, you are completely missing the boat here. Jurgen's examples are the results of an automatic computer buy/sell program. Therefore indicative of the extremes, not accounting for individual analyses. The whole point of the trendlines is to provide an aid in timing your entry/exits, helping you to squeeze out several more % points in overall returns. Therefore, just like fundamentals, it is not accurate to take one link of the chain to determine the strength of the whole. Who the hell trades according to only one indicator, be it fundamental or technical? That's foolish. For example, taking only a fundamental tool such as ROE or +/- earnings surprises, and applying them to a computer trading program and/or backtesting to determine their effectiveness as fundamental indicators, does not take into account other fundamentals like earnings momentum, industry dynamics, macro-economic factors, etc. -- all fundamentals as well, and probably playing similar roles in determining an investing decision. Likewise with TA. In asking Jurgen where he would time his trades in any stock based on trendline sell signals, doesn't prove anything. It's reasonable to assume that he will base his decisions on a culmination of FA and TA analyses. This renders any attempt to judge the effectiveness of MA's in practical application, useless and inaccurate. Instead, what you two will be comparing is both your skills in timing that stock in that time period. And there are any number of factors which foul up those results as well. I don't know anything about CIEN, but I'll tell you that I believe it very reasonable that ASND may push to 45 by April, and part of that belief has its roots in the 200EMA and 200dMA positive breakouts. The techie momentum players shall start returning to ASND as the technicals become stronger. Style Pts.