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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (16826)	3/1/1998 1:39:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, Re:are you implying that AMAT hasn't a clue as to when the industry is going up or down until it happens??? You may be right. I recall in November that AMAT said that business is rosy going forward....three months latter they are cutting their estimates by 30%. I don't think you are being entirely fair to AMAT mgt. Their forecasts are driven entirely by what their customers are telling them. During the Oct. timeframe, when the extent of the asian mess largely unknown, their customers were probably saying they were going to go ahead with their plans. As the situation worsened however, it's very likely that some reined in spending until the extent of the damage is known. hence, I wouldn't criticize AMAT mgt too loudly...they were simply relaying what their customers were telling them. Regards, brian

To: davesd who wrote (16826)	3/1/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Dave, > You have to wonder how good their [AMAT] forecasting is.< Or anybody's forecasting. GM

To: davesd who wrote (16826)	3/1/1998 6:58:00 PM
From: Marc Trombella	Respond to of 70976

You have to wonder how good their forecasting is. Well, to predict when a melt down will start and to what degree it will go are two different things. I don't even think Japan could predict that. It has nothing to do with predicting disasters, but more of how truthful the company is with its shareholders. After three quarters from now, (because of foggy conditions), AMAT can see that 1)they are right on track or 2)things are getting worse. But, why punish the stock ahead of time. Things could go either way, but as the situation stands now, three quarters of slow revenue is not enough to kill the stock. If this lasts three years, probably so.