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To: mike iles who wrote (29163)3/2/1998 12:08:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 53903
 
nice link... worth.com

explains, in part, why anyone would actually buy mu shares...



To: mike iles who wrote (29163)3/2/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 53903
 
>>Costs will be what this quarter, say $420M (contrary to
popular opinion MU's costs go up, they make more chips, buy more equipment (not
so much lately), hire more people ... <<

mike, mu management said they would average another $30 million in dep and amort expense, ALONE, per q for the next 3 qs. increasing expenses $5 mil doesn't cut it. $30-$35 mil is much closer. $445 should be much closer than your overly generous $420. now, the only question is how the $90 mil will be divied up over the next 3 qs. that, i don't know.



To: mike iles who wrote (29163)3/2/1998 12:14:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 53903
 
mike, david is talking gross costs. wouldn't you if your net cost was 33% more than than your asp? ;-) business who make a profit on a gross basis go bankrupt all the time b/c they can't do it on net basis. the bulls stick their head in the sand and pretend their butts are getting spanked by the reality of the bears paradigm.

even sridhar has learned to trust my eps estimates based upon third grade math over those of the million dollar pretty boy and girl analysts.



To: mike iles who wrote (29163)3/2/1998 12:19:00 AM
From: DavidG  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Mike,

Thanks for trying to follow the Rule. I will give you a c+ this time for your attempt at a bullish input...although I know you can do better.

Regarding your bear input on costs...Let's try and work together and all talk in the same language. The context of the commentaries were manufacturing costs of chips @$3 each. This means it did not include SG&A and R&D. Semantics will be important in this area. I agree with some of what you said...I always did but we must define our terms better if we are going to make this work.

Therefore if you talk in generalities about MU costs than it must be concluded you are also talking about all of MU products not just DRAM and SDRAM. So you really should not mix 16mb chip asps at $4.88 with other MU products such as flat screen, microstamp etc that have much cost and little or no revenue.

Nice try...I knew you would try and sneak that one in there.:-) I do think there is a bearish fundamental in there and you may want to state in the form of revenue vs costs still pointing to negative numbers. I'll let you come up with wording.

Thanks

DavidG