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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DavidG who wrote (29172)	3/2/1998 4:10:00 AM
From: Skeeter Bug	Respond to of 53903

david, ok, ok. the bulls believe the koreans are nearly out of inventory during the slowest dram demand season when they had tons during the busiest months of the year. this belief is based upon, in the bulls' dillusion, um, ok, opinion, that mu management is credible when they said this "may" be the case (with fingers crossed behind their back, of course ;-) the bears believe that supply relative to demand determines prices which, in turn, directly impacts mu's profitability. they believe that supply growth will continue to outperform demand growth in 16 mb. the problem should be made worse when bit production is increased again due to 64 mb crossover. why is their so little ability of mftrs to control and manipulate supplies and, therefore, pricing? b/c of the huge capital outlays required to get into this huge no limit poker game. another aggravating factor is that the only way to seriously reduce bit cost is to invest in technologies that multiply supply and, therefore, come back to haunt them on pricing. but, if they don't do this, they become quickly uncompetitive and may risk becoming an obsolete player. as for recent shut downs, they are good from the standpoint dram won't fall as far or as fast, over the long term (short term was decided a long time ago and it is nasty). however, the difference is between double ugly and just ugly. the bears also believe that companies should be valued according to their risk/reward ratio and not by some dolt spending opm on a liquid stock just b/c it is liquid ;-) you may not like it, but that is the skinny.