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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: arun gera who wrote (2265)	3/2/1998 10:51:00 PM
From: David	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

It's pretty easy to be philosophical on WAAS when it's someone else's contract. I understand the FAA is examining the most cost-effective way to acquire GPS navigation technology. This Trimble reorganization establishing a systems integration arm is in line with what industry experts and analysts have been saying needs to be done by the GPS players, since pure GPS products are unlikely compared to products embedded in multiple applications. So I am happy to see Trimble adapt to the new environment. I am working on the car nav analysis, and there have been so many players in so many combinations that it may turn into a few tables, or a summary table, or just a major stuff table.

To: arun gera who wrote (2265)	3/4/1998 11:18:00 PM
From: Step1	Respond to of 3506

Similar article appeared in Flight International two weeks ago Arun, I haven't read the one in the WSJ but the one in Flight International referred mostly to these items: (in fact there were two articles , the first one on WAAS and GPS and the other one on the management problems that the FAA is experiencing with changes at the top level and budget overruns such as the WAAS contract. They are apparently behind in their Y2K work and may have to fix only the bare essentials so they can somehow operate on Dec 31 1999. The president has asked for bi-monthly briefings on the Y2K travails... Actually, because they operate on GMT or Zulu time, it may come a few hours early for them...) 1- GPS signal jamming , either unintentional or intentional 2- need for a second channel for civilian purposes (that has to come from the military) 3- possible need to continue operating ground stations (a skeleton ) for back up 4- solar interference with GPS signals Basically for aviation purposes especially landing phase and in busy traffic approach and holding patterns, they just can t loose the signal or question its reliability not even for 3 seconds. So where does that leave GPS for air nav? I dunno, the government and the FAA are not especially known for respecting even their own deadlines,, so i would say that the earlier guesses for GPS 's entry into the commercial air nav market were premature and that may leave some lack of earnings in the near future (2 years). I cannot comment on the technical challenge of implementing a GPS nav sys (known as GNSS in the US and Canada) but still believe that it will eventually happen. It is very important though that the FAA sends a clear signal on what it intends to do and when it wants to do it because as is the case with the FDA, an FAA approval is often good enough for smaller countries (which may not have the means or technical abilities to certify a system of that complexity) to decide to opt for the same system as well. Overall, this issue is extremely political, with FAA wrangling, budget considerations, European distrust and fear (of not reaping enough economic rewards since the GPS is a US designed and operated system) and industry fragmentation (several aviation sectors - general av, comm av, cargo ops, mil dept and avionics manufacturers interests etc). All in all, the article was like a cold shower on the GPS air nav vendors and the better informed investors may have known that the FAA was having second thoughts for a while which might explain some of the weakness in TRMB, as well as in Pelorus Nav, a pure air nav play. it has been hit seriously in the last few months... Comments always appreciated sg