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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wabash Cannonball who wrote (638)	3/2/1998 12:15:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4155

Wabash, thanks for the reply. Just two comments: 1. be aware that in this competitive market building the brand Conseco may be more difficult/cost more than the company leads you to believe. 2. A general comment in the increased use of stock options and other stock based rewards. CSCO is actually giving out shares as a promotional device to distributors, CNC will give stock options to agents. These are parties which are usually not considered for such incentives/rewards. IMO this is a clear sign of how overvalued/crazy the market is. The following signs have been leading indicators for significant market drops: 1. Foreign buying at a peak. 2. Financial stocks (more specifically brokerage houses) trading at or near their 52 week highs. 3. cash positions in mutual funds at historical lows or declining. 4. Lot's of merger and acquisitons using overpriced stock and debt. 5. Significant IPO activity. 6. Lot's of reasoning of why the market is priced at fair value. We are invincible talk. How may of the above apply now? Pancho The above I recall reading on a book titled "The making of a Especulator" by Neihsendorfer (sp?) (The guy who was wipped out last fall so take them with a grain of salt) PS: Of course history will not necessarily repeat itself and if it does no one can tell exactly when.